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Table 4 Predictive value for the progression from UA to RA within one year using different cut-off values for erosions in hands

From: The prognostic value of baseline erosions in undifferentiated arthritis

Number of erosive joints n PPV (95% CI) NPV (95% CI) Specificity (95% CI) Sensitivity (95% CI) LR+ LR- AUC (SEM)
≥1 103 44 34-53 72 68-77 84 80-88 28 21-35 1.7 0.86 0.56 (0.028)
≥2 38 55 40-71 71 67-75 95 93-98 13 8-18 2.8 0.91 0.54 (0.028)
≥3 18 56 33-79 70 66-74 98 96-99 6 3-10 2.8 0.96 0.52 (0.028)
≥4 9 67 36-98 70 66-74 99 98-100 4 1-7 4.5 0.97 0.52 (0.028)
≥5 7 71 38-100 70 66-74 99 99-100 3 0-6 5.6 0.97 0.51 (0.028)
  1. n = number of UA patients positive for this cutoff.
  2. AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; LR+ = positive likelihood ratio; LR- = negative likelihood ratio; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; RA = rheumatoid arthritis; SEM = standard error of measurement; UA = undifferentiated arthritis.