The prognostic value of baseline erosions in undifferentiated arthritis

Table 4 Predictive value for the progression from UA to RA within one year using different cut-off values for erosions in hands

Number of erosive joints	n	PPV	(95% CI)	NPV	(95% CI)	Specificity	(95% CI)	Sensitivity	(95% CI)	LR+	LR-	AUC (SEM)
≥1	103	44	34-53	72	68-77	84	80-88	28	21-35	1.7	0.86	0.56 (0.028)
≥2	38	55	40-71	71	67-75	95	93-98	13	8-18	2.8	0.91	0.54 (0.028)
≥3	18	56	33-79	70	66-74	98	96-99	6	3-10	2.8	0.96	0.52 (0.028)
≥4	9	67	36-98	70	66-74	99	98-100	4	1-7	4.5	0.97	0.52 (0.028)
≥5	7	71	38-100	70	66-74	99	99-100	3	0-6	5.6	0.97	0.51 (0.028)

n = number of UA patients positive for this cutoff.
AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; LR+ = positive likelihood ratio; LR- = negative likelihood ratio; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; RA = rheumatoid arthritis; SEM = standard error of measurement; UA = undifferentiated arthritis.

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