The prognostic value of baseline erosions in undifferentiated arthritis

Table 8 Predictive value for having persistent disease in UA patients using different cut-off values for number of erosive joints

Number of erosive joints	n	PPV	(95% CI)	NPV	(95% CI)	Specificity	(95% CI)	Sensitivity	(95% CI)	LR+	LR-	AUC (SEM)
≥1	148	65	57-73	41	36-46	75	69-81	31	26-36	1.2	0.93	53 (0.026)
≥2	83	68	57-78	41	36-46	87	82-92	18	14-22	1.4	0.95	52 (0.026)
≥3	50	70	57-83	41	36-45	93	89-96	11	8-15	1.5	0.96	52 (0.026)
≥4	24	68	48-86	40	36-44	96	93-99	5	3-8	1.3	0.99	51 (0.026)
≥5	15	73	51-96	40	36-44	98	96-100	4	2-6	1.8	0.98	51 (0.026)

n = number of UA patients positive for this cutoff.
Patients with remission 205 (39.6%).
Patients with persistent disease 313 (60.4%).
AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; LR+ = positive likelihood ratio; LR- = negative likelihood ratio; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; SEM = standard error of measurement; UA = undifferentiated arthritis.

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