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Table 8 Predictive value for having persistent disease in UA patients using different cut-off values for number of erosive joints

From: The prognostic value of baseline erosions in undifferentiated arthritis

Number of erosive joints n PPV (95% CI) NPV (95% CI) Specificity (95% CI) Sensitivity (95% CI) LR+ LR- AUC (SEM)
≥1 148 65 57-73 41 36-46 75 69-81 31 26-36 1.2 0.93 53 (0.026)
≥2 83 68 57-78 41 36-46 87 82-92 18 14-22 1.4 0.95 52 (0.026)
≥3 50 70 57-83 41 36-45 93 89-96 11 8-15 1.5 0.96 52 (0.026)
≥4 24 68 48-86 40 36-44 96 93-99 5 3-8 1.3 0.99 51 (0.026)
≥5 15 73 51-96 40 36-44 98 96-100 4 2-6 1.8 0.98 51 (0.026)
  1. n = number of UA patients positive for this cutoff.
  2. Patients with remission 205 (39.6%).
  3. Patients with persistent disease 313 (60.4%).
  4. AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; LR+ = positive likelihood ratio; LR- = negative likelihood ratio; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; SEM = standard error of measurement; UA = undifferentiated arthritis.