ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curves of two prediction models. ROC curves of prediction models that used only genetic factors (MODEL I, AUC = 0.554) and that used both genetic factors and clinical data with age adjustment in the selected control group (MODEL II, AUC = 0.742). The curve for MODEL II was drawn through 1,000 simulation studies with rigorous age adjustment for control groups that reflected the Japanese elderly population. MODEL II had a significantly improved AUC. Curves were described by using the ROCR package.