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Table 2 Performance of baseline biomarkers as predictors of radiographic progression and absolute radiographic outcome at 8.2 years with univariate analysis
| Low vs high radiographic progression | Absolute radiographic outcome, progressors vs non-progressors | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline characteristics | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | P | OR (95% CI) | PPV (%) | NPV (%) | P | OR (95% CI) |
| Traditional measures | ||||||||
| SHS (> 7┴) | 71.43 | 70.00 | 0.002 | 5.83 (1.88, 18.10) | - | - | - | - |
| ESR (> 20 mm/hr∇) | 60.00 | 65.22 | 0.064 | 2.81 (0.94, 8.39) | 85.71 | 39.13 | 0.036 | 3.86 (1.09, 13.65) |
| CRP (> 5 mg/L∇) | 59.52 | 75.00 | 0.024 | 4.41 (1.22, 16.00) | 85.71 | 50.00 | 0.007 | 6.00 (1.62, 22.16) |
| Anti-CCP* (titer > 6 U/mL∇) | 65.00 | 83.33 | 0.002 | 9.29 (2.29, 37.64) | 90.00 | 55.56 | 0.001 | 11.25 (2.80, 45.16) |
| RF (titer > 40 U/mL∇) | 57.78 | 76.92 | 0.036 | 4.56 (1.10, 18.86) | 77.78 | 30.77 | 0.528 | 1.56 (0.39, 6.13) |
| CGA on VAS (> 49.00 mm┴) | 60.71 | 60.00 | 0.118 | 2.32 (0.81, 6.64) | 85.71 | 33.33 | 0.098 | 3.00 (0.82, 11.04) |
| Biomarkers of joint damage | ||||||||
| MMP-3 (> 85.79 ng/mL┴) | 75.00 | 73.33 | < 0.001 | 8.25 (2.54, 26.78) | 89.29 | 36.67 | 0.029 | 4.82 (1.18, 19.74) |
| CTX-II (> 0.20 μg/mmol┴) | 66.67 | 66.67 | 0.016 | 4.00 (1.29, 12.40) | 85.19 | 37.04 | 0.070 | 3.38 (0.91, 12.64) |
| COMP (> 11.20 U/L┴) | 67.86 | 68.97 | 0.007 | 4.69 (1.54, 14.34) | 89.29 | 37.93 | 0.024 | 5.09 (1.24, 20.92) |
| TIMP-1 (> 688.68 ng/mL┴) | 65.52 | 65.52 | 0.020 | 3.61 (1.22, 10.66) | 86.21 | 34.48 | 0.073 | 3.29 (0.89, 12.12) |
