| |
Low vs high radiographic progression
|
Absolute radiographic outcome, progressors vs non-progressors
|
|---|
|
Baseline characteristics
|
PPV (%)
|
NPV (%)
|
P
|
OR (95% CI)
|
PPV (%)
|
NPV (%)
|
P
|
OR (95% CI)
|
|---|
|
Traditional measures
| | | | | | | | |
|
SHS (> 7┴)
|
71.43
|
70.00
|
0.002
|
5.83 (1.88, 18.10)
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
ESR (> 20 mm/hr∇)
|
60.00
|
65.22
|
0.064
|
2.81 (0.94, 8.39)
|
85.71
|
39.13
|
0.036
|
3.86 (1.09, 13.65)
|
|
CRP (> 5 mg/L∇)
|
59.52
|
75.00
|
0.024
|
4.41 (1.22, 16.00)
|
85.71
|
50.00
|
0.007
|
6.00 (1.62, 22.16)
|
|
Anti-CCP* (titer > 6 U/mL∇)
|
65.00
|
83.33
|
0.002
|
9.29 (2.29, 37.64)
|
90.00
|
55.56
|
0.001
|
11.25 (2.80, 45.16)
|
|
RF (titer > 40 U/mL∇)
|
57.78
|
76.92
|
0.036
|
4.56 (1.10, 18.86)
|
77.78
|
30.77
|
0.528
|
1.56 (0.39, 6.13)
|
|
CGA on VAS (> 49.00 mm┴)
|
60.71
|
60.00
|
0.118
|
2.32 (0.81, 6.64)
|
85.71
|
33.33
|
0.098
|
3.00 (0.82, 11.04)
|
|
Biomarkers of joint damage
| | | | | | | | |
|
MMP-3 (> 85.79 ng/mL┴)
|
75.00
|
73.33
|
< 0.001
|
8.25 (2.54, 26.78)
|
89.29
|
36.67
|
0.029
|
4.82 (1.18, 19.74)
|
|
CTX-II (> 0.20 μg/mmol┴)
|
66.67
|
66.67
|
0.016
|
4.00 (1.29, 12.40)
|
85.19
|
37.04
|
0.070
|
3.38 (0.91, 12.64)
|
|
COMP (> 11.20 U/L┴)
|
67.86
|
68.97
|
0.007
|
4.69 (1.54, 14.34)
|
89.29
|
37.93
|
0.024
|
5.09 (1.24, 20.92)
|
|
TIMP-1 (> 688.68 ng/mL┴)
|
65.52
|
65.52
|
0.020
|
3.61 (1.22, 10.66)
|
86.21
|
34.48
|
0.073
|
3.29 (0.89, 12.12)
|
- * = Anti-CCP taken at 8.2-year follow-up visit. ┴ = indicates derived from median value in this study, ∇ = indicates derived from established normal value
- 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; Anti-CCP, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide; CGA, clinician's global assessment; COMP, cartilage oligomeric matrix protein; CRP, C-reactive protein; CTX-II, C-telopeptide of type II collagen; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; MMP-3, matrix metalloproteinase-3; NPV, negative predictive value; OR, odds ratio; PPV, positive predictive value; RF, rheumatoid factor; SHS, van der Heijde modified Sharp score; TIMP-1, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1; VAS, visual analogue score.
