Skip to main content

Advertisement

Table 2 Performance of baseline biomarkers as predictors of radiographic progression and absolute radiographic outcome at 8.2 years with univariate analysis

From: Baseline serum MMP-3 levels in patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis are still independently predictive of radiographic progression in a longitudinal observational cohort at 8 years follow up

  Low vs high radiographic progression Absolute radiographic outcome, progressors vs non-progressors
Baseline characteristics PPV (%) NPV (%) P OR (95% CI) PPV (%) NPV (%) P OR (95% CI)
Traditional measures         
SHS (> 7) 71.43 70.00 0.002 5.83 (1.88, 18.10) - - - -
ESR (> 20 mm/hr) 60.00 65.22 0.064 2.81 (0.94, 8.39) 85.71 39.13 0.036 3.86 (1.09, 13.65)
CRP (> 5 mg/L) 59.52 75.00 0.024 4.41 (1.22, 16.00) 85.71 50.00 0.007 6.00 (1.62, 22.16)
Anti-CCP* (titer > 6 U/mL) 65.00 83.33 0.002 9.29 (2.29, 37.64) 90.00 55.56 0.001 11.25 (2.80, 45.16)
RF (titer > 40 U/mL) 57.78 76.92 0.036 4.56 (1.10, 18.86) 77.78 30.77 0.528 1.56 (0.39, 6.13)
CGA on VAS (> 49.00 mm) 60.71 60.00 0.118 2.32 (0.81, 6.64) 85.71 33.33 0.098 3.00 (0.82, 11.04)
Biomarkers of joint damage         
MMP-3 (> 85.79 ng/mL) 75.00 73.33 < 0.001 8.25 (2.54, 26.78) 89.29 36.67 0.029 4.82 (1.18, 19.74)
CTX-II (> 0.20 μg/mmol) 66.67 66.67 0.016 4.00 (1.29, 12.40) 85.19 37.04 0.070 3.38 (0.91, 12.64)
COMP (> 11.20 U/L) 67.86 68.97 0.007 4.69 (1.54, 14.34) 89.29 37.93 0.024 5.09 (1.24, 20.92)
TIMP-1 (> 688.68 ng/mL) 65.52 65.52 0.020 3.61 (1.22, 10.66) 86.21 34.48 0.073 3.29 (0.89, 12.12)
  1. * = Anti-CCP taken at 8.2-year follow-up visit. = indicates derived from median value in this study, = indicates derived from established normal value
  2. 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; Anti-CCP, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide; CGA, clinician's global assessment; COMP, cartilage oligomeric matrix protein; CRP, C-reactive protein; CTX-II, C-telopeptide of type II collagen; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; MMP-3, matrix metalloproteinase-3; NPV, negative predictive value; OR, odds ratio; PPV, positive predictive value; RF, rheumatoid factor; SHS, van der Heijde modified Sharp score; TIMP-1, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1; VAS, visual analogue score.