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Table 2 Performance of baseline biomarkers as predictors of radiographic progression and absolute radiographic outcome at 8.2 years with univariate analysis

From: Baseline serum MMP-3 levels in patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis are still independently predictive of radiographic progression in a longitudinal observational cohort at 8 years follow up

 

Low vs high radiographic progression

Absolute radiographic outcome, progressors vs non-progressors

Baseline characteristics

PPV (%)

NPV (%)

P

OR (95% CI)

PPV (%)

NPV (%)

P

OR (95% CI)

Traditional measures

        

SHS (> 7â”´)

71.43

70.00

0.002

5.83 (1.88, 18.10)

-

-

-

-

ESR (> 20 mm/hr∇)

60.00

65.22

0.064

2.81 (0.94, 8.39)

85.71

39.13

0.036

3.86 (1.09, 13.65)

CRP (> 5 mg/L∇)

59.52

75.00

0.024

4.41 (1.22, 16.00)

85.71

50.00

0.007

6.00 (1.62, 22.16)

Anti-CCP* (titer > 6 U/mL∇)

65.00

83.33

0.002

9.29 (2.29, 37.64)

90.00

55.56

0.001

11.25 (2.80, 45.16)

RF (titer > 40 U/mL∇)

57.78

76.92

0.036

4.56 (1.10, 18.86)

77.78

30.77

0.528

1.56 (0.39, 6.13)

CGA on VAS (> 49.00 mmâ”´)

60.71

60.00

0.118

2.32 (0.81, 6.64)

85.71

33.33

0.098

3.00 (0.82, 11.04)

Biomarkers of joint damage

        

MMP-3 (> 85.79 ng/mLâ”´)

75.00

73.33

< 0.001

8.25 (2.54, 26.78)

89.29

36.67

0.029

4.82 (1.18, 19.74)

CTX-II (> 0.20 μg/mmol┴)

66.67

66.67

0.016

4.00 (1.29, 12.40)

85.19

37.04

0.070

3.38 (0.91, 12.64)

COMP (> 11.20 U/Lâ”´)

67.86

68.97

0.007

4.69 (1.54, 14.34)

89.29

37.93

0.024

5.09 (1.24, 20.92)

TIMP-1 (> 688.68 ng/mLâ”´)

65.52

65.52

0.020

3.61 (1.22, 10.66)

86.21

34.48

0.073

3.29 (0.89, 12.12)

  1. * = Anti-CCP taken at 8.2-year follow-up visit. ┴ = indicates derived from median value in this study, ∇ = indicates derived from established normal value
  2. 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; Anti-CCP, anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide; CGA, clinician's global assessment; COMP, cartilage oligomeric matrix protein; CRP, C-reactive protein; CTX-II, C-telopeptide of type II collagen; ESR, erythrocyte sedimentation rate; MMP-3, matrix metalloproteinase-3; NPV, negative predictive value; OR, odds ratio; PPV, positive predictive value; RF, rheumatoid factor; SHS, van der Heijde modified Sharp score; TIMP-1, tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 1; VAS, visual analogue score.