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Table 3 Predictive value of early change in clinical and laboratory parameters for time to treatment discontinuation

From: The effect of three years of TNF alpha blocking therapy on markers of bone turnover and their predictive value for treatment discontinuation in patients with ankylosing spondylitis: a prospective longitudinal observational cohort study

  Univariate analysis Multivariate analysis
Assessment HR (95% CI) P-value HR (95% CI) P-value
Δ0 to 3 m BASDAI 0.672 (0.579 to 0.780) 0.000   *
Δ0 to 3 m ASDASCRP 0.434 (0.327 to 0.577) 0.000 0.488 (0.317 to 0.752) 0.001
Δ0 to 3 m physician's GDA 0.643 (0.543 to 0.772) 0.000 0.739 (0.600 to 0.909) 0.004
Δ0 to 3 m patient's GDA 0.735 (0.641 to 0.844) 0.000   *
Δ0 to 3 m CRP 0.977 (0.954 to 1.002) 0.068   *
Δ0 to 3 m ESR 0.975 (0.950 to 1.001) 0.064   *
Δ0 to 3 m BALP Z-score 1.291 (0.969 to 1.720) 0.081   *
Δ0 to 3 m PINP Z-score 1.014 (0.688 to 1.493) 0.944   **
Δ0 to 3 m sCTX Z-score 0.513 (0.367 to 0.717) 0.000 0.394 (0.263 to 0.591) 0.000
  1. Data of 105 AS patients were analyzed: 72 patients who continued versus 33 patients who discontinued their first TNF-α blocking agent because of inefficacy and/or adverse events.
  2. Δ0 to 3 m, change from baseline to three months. See Table 1 for other abbreviations.
  3. HR refers to the risk of anti-TNF-α treatment discontinuation per 1 grade or 1 point.
  4. * The variable was not selected during multivariate Cox regression analysis (P ≥ 0.05).
  5. ** The variable was not tested in multivariate Cox regression analysis because of a P-value > 0.3 in univariate analysis.
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