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Table 2 Predictors of Chikungunya rheumatism issues in subjects ≥ 15 years of age (full model) in the TELECHIK study, La Réunion, 2007 to 2008

From: Predictors of Chikungunya rheumatism: a prognostic survey ancillary to the TELECHIK cohort study

Outcomes (versus recovery as reference) Relapsing rheumatic musculoskeletal pain Lingering rheumatic musculoskeletal pain
Determinants N CIR, % Adjusted odds ratio 95% CI P- value N CIR, % Adjusted odds ratio 95% CI P- value
Gender      0.536      0.562
Male 41 34.7 1    48 31.9 1   
Female 70 32.4 0.78 0.34, 1.74   102 42.2 0.78 0.33, 1.82  
Age      0.013      < 0.001
15 to 29 yrs 19 27.3 1    12 20.7 1   
30 to 44 yrs 32 37.9 1.60 0.57, 4.51   28 30.4 1.64 0.51, 5.31  
45 to 59 yrs 27 30.0 2.67 0.78 - 9.10   52 50.2 5.62 1.52, 20.79  
≥ 60 yrs 33 36.3 9.20 2.31, 36.59   58 55.6 16.03 3.82, 67.13  
Underlying comorbidity      0.667      0.555
None 56 32.8 1    62 32.5 1   
Metabolic syndrome without rheumatic disorders* 35 31.8 1.45 0.45, 4.65   63 53.6 1.92 0.59, 6.24  
Rheumatic disorders with or without metabolic syndrome** 6 33.5 1.67 0.20, 13.53   16 53.8 2.11 0.27, 16.26  
Other conditions 12 44.7 2.02 0.62, 6.49   8 18.8 2.02 0.60, 6.81  
Initial rheumatic involvement      0.008      0.001
Low to moderate 70 31.8 1    77 31.0 1   
Severe 41 35.6 3.52 1.40, 8.87   73 50.0 5.43 1.95, 15.11  
CHIKV-specific IgG titre (per one unit increase) 111 33.2 3.31 1.82, 5.99 < 0.001 150 38.3 5.72 2.74, 12.51 < 0.001
Exposure Score #      0.132      0.195
First quartile class (-2.526; -0.415) 21 32.3 1    32 38.7 1   
Second quartile class (-0.400; 0.018) 27 31.9 0.60 0.20, 1.73   33 33.2 0.48 0.16, 1.42  
Third quartile class (0.026; 0.432) 23 27.0 0.53 0.17, 1.70   35 41.7 0.70 0.22, 2.13  
Fourth quartile class (0.433; 1.435) 25 38.3 2.09 0.57, 7.59   39 42.6 1.87 0.43, 7.97  
  1. CIR, cumulative incidence rate; CHIKV, Chikungunya virus; N, number. All estimations and P-values are weighted by the sampling scheme. *Metabolic syndrome was defined by any of the following features: body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2 , diabetes mellitus, arterial hypertension, or any type of dyslepidemia; **hip, knee or hand osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis and psoriatic spondylarthritis and other types of rheumatic disorders, such as gout; coronary heart disease, asthma, chronic bronchitis, renal insufficiency, cancer; #exposure score build up with six covariates and two derivatives (eight components) including residence area, housing type, a first interaction term between the residence area and housing type, deciles of altitude, household size, history of recent Chikungunya-related picture in the neighbours, a second interaction term between the household size and history of Chikungunya, and last, the answer to the question: 'Is Chikungunya virus a mosquito-borne virus?'. All subjects had arthralgia or muscle pain at disease onset. Joint or muscle pain with at most two of the three following conditions: fever, six or more localizations of arthralgia, at least four other symptoms; fever and six or more localizations of arthralgia and at least four other symptoms.