ROC curves obtained by plotting the sensitivity and 1-specificity values of NEMO, GC and Cs scores in classifying active patients (taking into account either a ESSG index ≥3.5 or ≥3). Cs ROC curve was plotted using sensitivity and the reciprocal values of specificity considering the maximum value observed as 1 (15, patient number 37). This was done to obtain a plot over the reference line comparable to those obtained for the NEMO and GC ROC plot. When the ROC curves obtained considering a ESSG ≥3.5 as the cut-off value for DA were evaluated (panel A), the area under the curve (AUC) defined for the NEMO score (AUC = 0.89, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.95) was significantly greater than that derived from both GC (AUC = 0.73, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.83) and Cs scores (AUC 0.64, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.73). When a ESSG cut-off value ≥3 was considered as indicative of DA (panel B), the AUC of the NEMO ROC curve (AUC 0.91, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.96) was significantly higher than that derived from GC score (AUC 0.8, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.83) and Cs score (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.74). AUC, area under the curve; CI, confidence interval; Cs, capillaries; DA, disease activity; ESSG, European Scleroderma Study Group; GC, giant capillaries; NEMO, number of micro-haemorrhages; ROC, receiver operating characteristic.