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Table 3 Patient characteristics studied as determinants for clinical knee OA progression in the included studies

From: Prognostic factors for progression of clinical osteoarthritis of the knee: a systematic review of observational studies

Determinant Author [ref.] year Instrument of measurement Definition of knee OA progression OR/RR/HR/β (95 % CI) Association with OA prognosis*
Age Muraki [25] 2012 Per 5 years increase Incident knee pain at follow-up (baseline K/L ≥2) OR 1.01 (0.95–1.07) o
(N = 10,043) Holla [20] 2010 Continuous (years) Progressing/remaining in poor WOMAC-PF quintiles OR 0.97 (0.94–1.00)
  Holla [21] 2014 Continuous (years) Poor vs good outcome WOMAC-PF trajectory OR 0.94 (0.88–1.00)
  Collins [15] 2014 Continuous (years) Severe vs no pain WOMAC pain trajectory OR 0.92 (0.89–0.96)
  Riddle [29] 2009 Continuous (years) Knee joint surgery OR 1.07 (1.02–1.11) +
  Riddle [30] 2012 Continuous (years) Knee joint surgery RR 1.04 (1.01–1.23) +
Female sex Collins [15] 2014 Female vs male Severe vs no pain WOMAC pain trajectory OR 3.0 (1.5–6.2) +
(N = 3,066) Muraki [25] 2012 Female vs male Incident knee pain at follow-up (baseline K/L ≥2) OR 1.32 (0.94–1.84) o
Ethnicity Collins [15] 2014 Non-white vs white Severe vs no pain WOMAC pain trajectory OR 3.3 (1.7–6.6) +
(N = 2,585) Holla [20] 2010 Non-western vs western Progressing/remaining in poor WOMAC-PF quintiles OR 4.03 (1.06–15.4) +
Education level Collins [15] 2014 <College ≥ college Severe vs no pain WOMAC pain trajectory OR 5.1 (2.3–11.2) +
(N = 2,531) Riddle [29] 2009 ≤ High school graduate Knee joint surgery OR 2.40 (1.09–5.28) +
Body mass index (N = 4,857) Holla [20] 2010 Continuous Progressing/remaining in poor WOMAC-PF quintiles OR 1.06 (1.02–1.11) +
Sharma [34] 2003 Per 5 unit increase Progressing/remaining in poor WOMAC-PF quintiles OR 1.15 (0.89–1.46) o
Collins [15] 2014 Obese vs non-obese Severe vs no pain WOMAC pain trajectory OR 2.3 (1.2–4.4) +
Holla [21] 2014 Continuous Moderate vs good outcome WOMAC-PF trajectory OR 1.12 (1.07–1.18) +
Muraki [25] 2012 Per 5 units increase Incident knee pain at follow-up (baseline K/L ≥2) OR 1.54 (1.90–1.82) +
Riddle [29] 2009 ≤30 vs >30 kg/m2 Knee joint surgery OR 2.66 (1.20–5.92) +
Bodyweight change Riddle [31] 2013 ≥–10 % vs –4.9 to +4.9 %   β 4.07 (1.49–6.65)
(N = 1,410)   –9.9 to –5 % vs –4.9 to +4.9 % Increase self-reported limitations (WOMAC-PF) β 0.01 (–1.87 to 1.89) o
   +5 to +9.9 % vs –4.9 to +4.9 % Increase in pain (WOMAC); similar results, not tabulated β 1.08 (–0.91 to 3.07) o
   ≥ + 10 % vs –4.9 to +4.9 %   β –5.36 (–8.74 to –2.00) +
Knee compression force Henriksen [18] 2013 Change in peak knee joint compressive force Change in KOOS-4 LSMD –2.4 (–6.8 to 1.9) o
(N = 157)   Change in walking speed, m/s LSMD –0.01 (–0.05 to 0.03) o
Co-morbidity count Holla [20] 2010 ≥3 vs none Progressing/remaining in poor WOMAC-PF quintiles OR 1.53 (0.93–2.53) o
(N = 3,672) Holla [21] 2014 ≥3 vs < 3 Poor vs good outcome WOMAC-PF trajectory OR 3.28 (1.62–6.64) +
  Collins [15] 2014 ≥1 vs 0 Severe vs no pain WOMAC pain trajectory OR 2.0 (1.0–3.9) +
  Pisters [27] 2012 Per unit CIRS increase Increase in self-reported limitations (WOMAC-PF) β 3.69 (1.66–8.23) +
  Van Dijk [37] 2011 Per unit CIRS increase Increase in self-reported limitations (WOMAC-PF) β –0.147 (not provided) +
    Increase in performance-based limitations (TWT) β 0.150 (not provided) +
Mental health Collins [15] 2014 CES-D ≥16 vs CES-D < 16 Severe vs no pain WOMAC pain trajectory OR 8.8 (3.1–25.2) +
(N = 6,659) Sharma [34] 2003 Per 5 points score Progressing/remaining in poor WOMAC-PF quintiles OR 0.58 (0.39–0.86)
  Riddle [30] 2012 Per unit SF-12 MCS score Knee joint surgery RR 1.07 (1.04–1.10) +
Vitality Holla [21] 2014 Per unit SF-36 HS score Poor vs good outcome WOMAC-PF trajectory OR 0.96 (0.94–0.98)
(N = 871) Van Dijk [37] 2011 Per unit SF-36 MOS score Increase in self-reported limitations (WOMAC-PF) β 0.157 (not provided)
    Increase in performance-based limitations (TWT) β –0.229 (not provided)
Pain coping Alschuler [9] 2013 CSQ subscale praying or hoping ≥20 % change in combined NRS and WOMAC-PF score Not provided +
(N = 1,048)   CSQ subscale catastrophizing ≥20 % change in combined NRS or WOMAC-PF score Not provided +
Holla [20] 2010 PCI subscale distraction Progressing/remaining in poor WOMAC-PF quintiles OR 1.26 (0.98–1.62) o
  PCI subscale worrying OR 0.63 (0.66–0.73)
Holla [21] 2014 PCI subscale resting Poor vs good outcome WOMAC-PF trajectory OR 1.16 (1.02–1.31) +
Pisters [27] 2012 PCI subscale resting Increase in self-reported limitations (WOMAC-PF) β 23.3 (1.93–280.7) +
    Increase in performance-based limitations (TWT) β 3.13 (1.95–5.03) +
Morning stiffness Holla [20] 2010 <30 minutes, yes vs no Progressing/remaining in poor WOMAC-PF quintiles OR 1.37 (0.99–1.88) o
(N = 832)      
Knee injury Muraki [25] 2012 Previous knee injury Incident knee pain at follow-up (baseline K/L ≥2) OR 2.91 (1.26–6.82) +
(N = 1,313)      
Knee surgery Riddle [30] 2012 History of knee surgery Knee joint surgery RR 2.04 (1.33–3.13) +
(N = 4,670)      
Pain medication use Riddle [30] 2012 For pain, aching or stiffness Knee joint surgery RR 1.64 (0.87–3.12) o
(N = 6,516) Lapane [22] 2015 NSAID usage vs not MICD of WOMAC pain β –0.88 (–2.22 to 0.46) o
    MICD of WOMAC-PF β –4.27 (–8.84 to 0.31) o
    MICD of WOMAC stiffness β –0.72 (–1.56 to 0.12) o
Bisphosphonate use Laslett [24] 2014 Yes vs no Decrease in WOMAC pain β 0.69 (–0.54 to 1.92) o
(N = 323)    Decrease in WOMAC function β 0.05 (–3.85 to 3.95) o
    Decrease in WOMAC stiffness β –0.24 (–0.75 to 0.27) o
    Decrease in NRS after 3 and 4 years, but not 5 years β –1.15 (–1.94 to –0.36) +
Glucosamine/chondroitin use Yang [38] 2015 Yes vs no MICD of WOMAC pain β 0.68 (–0.16 to 1.53) o
   MICD of WOMAC-PF β 1.28 (–1.23 to 3.79) o
(N = 1,625)    MICD of WOMAC stiffness β 0.41 (0–0.82) o
History of HRS Riddle [30] 2012 Yes vs no Knee joint surgery RR 2.73 (0.93–8.07) o
(N = 4,670)      
  1. *Statistically significant association of the determinant with OA progression: + positive association, – negative association, o no association (adjusted for age and sex if applicable).
  2. β regression coefficient, CES-D Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale, CI confidence interval, CIRS Cumulative Illness Rating Scale, CSQ Coping Strategies Questionnaire, HR hazard ratio, HRS hip replacement surgery, K/L Kellgren and Lawrence score, KOOS-4 Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score for pain, symptoms, function and quality of life, LSMD least squares means difference, MICD minimally important clinical difference, N combined sample size, NRS Numeric Rating Scale, NSAID non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug, OA osteoarthritis, OR odds ratio, PCI Pain Coping Inventory, RR relative risk, SF-12 MCS Short Form survey instrument for the Mental Component Summary, SF-36 HS/MOS SF-36 Health Survey/Medical Outcome Study, TWT Timed Walking Test, WOMAC-PF physical function scale of the Western Ontario and McMaster osteoarthritis index