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Table 4 Disease characteristics studied as determinants for clinical knee OA progression in the included studies
| Determinant | Author [ref.] year | Analysis of determinant | Definition of knee OA progression | OR/RR/HR/β (95 % CI) | Association with OA prognosis* |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severity | |||||
| Radiographic | Bruyere [13] 2005 | JSN ≥0.5 mm/3 years | Knee joint surgery | RR 4.61 (1.65–12.8) | + |
| (N = 8,201) | Riddle [30] 2012 | Per grade (0–4 grade scale) | Knee joint surgery | RR 2.09 (1.63–2.69) | + |
| Collins [15] 2014 | K/L 3 vs K/L 2a | Severe vs no pain WOMAC pain trajectory | OR 4.3 (2.1–8.6) | + | |
| Holla [21] 2014 | Osteophytosis | Poor vs good outcome WOMAC-PF trajectory | OR 5.68 (2.57–12.55) | + | |
| Oak [26] 2013 | Baseline JSW (mm) | Decrease KOOS pain (KOOS symptom and quality of life show similar regression coefficients) | β 1.94 (1.19–2.69) | + | |
| JSN over 4 years (mm) | β 2.31 (1.18–3.44) | + | |||
| Clinical | Alschuler [9] 2013 | NRS of past 7 daysa | ≥20 % change in combined NRS and WOMAC-PF score | Not provided | + |
| (N = 7,558) | WOMAC-PFa | Not provided | + | ||
| Holla [21] 2014 | NRS for knee paina | Poor vs good outcome WOMAC-PF trajectory | OR 1.81 (1.51–2.16) | + | |
| Oak [26] 2013 | Baseline KOOS value | Decrease KOOS pain (KOOS symptom and quality of life show similar regression coefficients) | β 0.49 (0.43–0.59) | + | |
| Pisters [27] 2012 | Per cm increase VASa | Increase in self-reported limitations (WOMAC-PF) | β 5.99 (2.90–12.4) | + | |
| Sharma [34] 2003 | Per 20 mm VAS increase | Progressing/remaining in poor WOMAC-PF quintiles | OR 1.48 (1.12–1.95) | + | |
| Riddle [30] 2012 | NRS of past 30 daysa | Knee joint surgery | RR 1.12 (1.02–1.22) | + | |
| Painful knee flexion | Riddle [30] 2012 | Yes vs no | Knee joint surgery | RR 1.58 (1.04–2.39) | + |
| (N = 4,670) | |||||
| Joint line tenderness | Holla [21] 2014 | Yes vs no | Poor vs good outcome WOMAC-PF trajectory | OR 2.63 (1.38–5.02) | + |
| (N = 5,367) | Riddle [30] 2012 | Yes vs no | Knee joint surgery | RR 0.71 (0.43–1.18) | o |
| Flexion contracture | Riddle [30] 2012 | Knee flexion contracture (°) | Knee joint surgery | RR 1.06 (1.02–1.11) | + |
| (N = 4,670) | |||||
| Knee ROM | Holla [21] 2014 | Active ROM in degrees | Poos vs good outcome WOMAC-PF trajectory | OR 0.96 (0.93–1.00) | – |
| (N = 913) | Pisters [27] 2012 | Mean extension | Increase in performance-based limitations (TWT) | β 0.92 (0.86–0.98) | – |
| Hand grip strength (muscle strength) | Muraki [25] 2012 | Per 1 kg strength increase | Incident knee pain at follow-up (baseline K/L ≥2) | OR 1.00 (0.98–1.02) | o |
| (N = 1,313) | |||||
| Quadriceps strength | Amin [10] 2009 | Low vs middle | Increase in knee specific VAS pain score | Not provided | o |
| (N = 5,151) | vs high strength | Increase in self-reported limitations (WOMAC-PF) | Not provided | o | |
| Pisters [27] 2012 | Continuous in Newton/kg | Increase in self-reported limitations (WOMAC-PF) | β 0.11 (0.01–1.36) | o | |
| Increase in performance-based limitations (TWT) | β 0.60 (0.37–1.03) | o | |||
| Riddle [30] 2012 | Normalized to bodyweight | Knee joint surgery | RR 0.79 (0.65–0.96) | – | |
| Bone marrow lesions/edema (BMLs/BME) | Roemer [32] 2014 | ≥2 subregions vs 0–1 | Knee joint surgery | OR 4.00 (1.75–9.16) | + |
| Grade ≥1 vs grade 0 | OR 4.00 (0.85–18.84) | o | |||
| Scher [33] 2008 | Global BME vs none | Knee joint surgery | OR 15.2 (2.38–97.1) | + | |
| (N = 580) | Tanamas [35] 2010 | BMLs, present vs absent | Knee joint surgery | OR 1.57 (1.04–2.35) | + |
| Medial BMLs vs absent | Knee joint surgery | OR 1.78 (1.16–2.74) | + | ||
| Lateral BMLs vs absent | Knee joint surgery | OR 0.82 (0.43–1.54) | o | ||
| Subchondral bone cysts (MRI) | Tanamas [36] 2010 | Medial, per grade of severity | Knee joint surgery | OR 1.99 (1.01–3.90) | + |
| Lateral, per grade of severity | Knee joint surgery | OR 0.96 (0.48–1.94) | o | ||
| (N = 109) | |||||
| Cartilage loss (MRI) | Cicuttini [14] 2004 | Rate 3–8 % per annum | Knee joint surgery | OR 2.3 (0.4–12.2) | o |
| (N = 681) | Rate >8 % per annum | OR 7.1 (1.4–36.5) | + | ||
| Eckstein [17] 2013 | Change in cMFTC.ThC | Knee joint surgery | Not provided | + | |
| Change in MFTC.ThC | Not provided | + | |||
| Change in LFTC.ThC | Not provided | o | |||
| Roemer [32] 2014b | Grade 3 vs <3 (whole knee) | OR 4.00 (2.23–7.18) | + | ||
| Grade 3 vs 0 (MFTC) | Knee joint surgery | OR 3.01 (1.52–5.95) | + | ||
| Grade 3 vs 0 (LFTC) | OR 1.69 (0.94–3.02) | o | |||
| Scher [33] 2008 | ≥50 % vs <50 % loss | Knee joint surgery | OR 2.06 (0.74–5.70) | o | |
| Meniscal extrusion (MRI) | Roemer [32] 2014 | ≥5 mm vs <5 mm (medial) | Knee joint surgery | OR 1.00 (0.60–1.67) | o |
| ≥5 mm vs <5 mm (lateral) | OR 1.42 (0.54–3.75) | o | |||
| (N = 398) | |||||
| Meniscal damage (MRI) | Roemer [32] 2014 | Grade 6–8 vs 0–1 (medial) | Knee joint surgery | OR 1.84 (1.13–2.99) | o |
| (N = 398) | Grade 6–8 vs 0–1 (lateral) | OR 1.10 (0.68–1.77) | o | ||
| Anterior cruciate ligament tear | Amin [11] 2008 | Complete tear on MRI | Increase in knee-specific VAS pain score | Not provided | o |
| Complete tear on MRI | Increase in self-reported limitations (WOMAC-PF) | Not provided | o | ||
| (N = 265) | |||||
| Synovitis | Roemer [32] 2014 | Infrapatellar fat pad on MRI | Knee joint surgery | OR 2.17 (1.33–3.56) | + |
| (N = 764) | Hill [19] 2007 | Infrapatellar fat pad on MRI | Increase in knee-specific VAS pain score | β 4.89 (0.42–9.36) | + |
| Intercondylar on MRI | β 5.74 (0.34–11.14) | + | |||
| Suprapatellar on MRI | β 3.35 (–0.34 to 7.05) | o | |||
| Conaghan [16] 2010 | Present on US | Knee joint surgery | HR 1.54 (0.95–2.50) | o | |
| Joint effusion | Conaghan [16] 2010 | Present on US | Knee joint surgery | HR 3.06 (2.00–4.69) | + |
| (N = 5,979) | Riddle [29] 2009 | Positive bulge sign | Knee joint surgery | OR 2.53 (1.13–5.56) | + |
| Riddle [30] 2012 | Positive bulge sign | Knee joint surgery | RR 1.58 (1.04–2.40) | + | |
| Roemer [32] 2014 | Present on MRI (grade 1–3) | Knee joint surgery | OR 4.75 (2.55–8.85) | + | |
| Trabecular bone texture | Podsiadlo [28] 2014 | FDmean on FSA, medial | Knee joint surgery | OR 0.23 (0.06–0.82) | + |
| (N = 114) | FDmean on FSA, lateral | OR 0.33 (0.09–1.22) | o | ||
| C2C (serum) | Berry [12] 2009 | High level vs low | Knee joint surgery | OR 1.01 (0.94–1.08) | o |
| (N = 117) | |||||
| COMP (serum) | Berry [12] 2010 | High level vs low | Knee joint surgery | OR 0.77 (0.15–3.81) | o |
| (N = 117) | |||||
| PIIANP (serum) | Berry [12] 2010 | Natural log baseline levels | Knee joint surgery | OR 0.28 (0.10–0.93) | – |
| (N = 117) | |||||
| ARGS (synovial) | Larsson [23] 2012 | Baseline level ARGS > follow-up level ARGS | ≥10 units progression KOOS Pain | OR 3.66 (1.01–13.2) | + |
| (N = 74) | ≥10 units progression KOOS Function of daily living | OR 1.11 (0.26–4.80) | o |
