Continuously elevated serum matrix metalloproteinase-3 for 3 ~ 6 months predict one-year radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis: a prospective cohort study

Table 3 Performance of disease activity indicators as predictors for one-year radiographic progression^a

Disease activity indicators	Accuracy	P	95 % CI	Cutoff point	PPV (%)	NPV (%)	OR (95 % CI)	P
Baseline
Serum MMP-3	0.721	0.010	0.572 ~ 0.870	159 ng/ml	46.7	92.3	10.500 (2.097 ~ 52.581)	0.004
Total Sharp score	0.753	0.003	0.613 ~ 0.893	15	54.5	88.2	9.000 (2.359 ~ 34.334)	0.001
1st month
CRP	0.680	0.037	0.525 ~ 0.835	1.76 mg/dl	66.7	78.7	7.400 (1.567 ~ 34.935)	0.011
Serum MMP-3	0.758	0.003	0.605 ~ 0.911	264 ng/ml	64.7	87.2	12.467 (3.175 ~ 48.950)	< 0.001
3rd month
Serum MMP-3	0.766	0.002	0.606 ~ 0.926	178 ng/ml	64.7	87.2	15.857 (3.412 ~ 73.687)	< 0.001
6th month
28SJC	0.667	0.052	0.503 ~ 0.832	NA	NA	NA	NA	NA
CRP	0.681	0.035	0.525 ~ 0.838	0.64 mg/dl	58.3	79.5	5.444 (1.395 ~ 21.244)	0.015
Serum MMP-3	0.830	< 0.001	0.696 ~ 0.963	161 ng/ml	75.0	90.0	27.000 (5.834 ~ 24.962)	< 0.001

^aAccuracy of predictive value was determined by ROC curve analysis; OR of predictors was determined by univariate logistic regression analysis according to the cutoff point
28SJC 28-joint swollen joint count, PrGA provider global assessment of disease activity, CRP C-reactive protein, ESR erythrocyte sedimentation rate, MMP-3 matrix metalloproteinase-3, RF rheumatoid factor, anti-CCP anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody, DAS28 Disease Activity Score 28-joint assessment, SDAI simplified disease activity index, PPV positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value, ROC receiver operating characteristic; OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, NA not applicable

ISSN: 1478-6362