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Table 3 Performance of disease activity indicators as predictors for one-year radiographic progressiona

From: Continuously elevated serum matrix metalloproteinase-3 for 3 ~ 6 months predict one-year radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis: a prospective cohort study

Disease activity indicators Accuracy P 95 % CI Cutoff point PPV (%) NPV (%) OR (95 % CI) P
Baseline         
 Serum MMP-3 0.721 0.010 0.572 ~ 0.870 159 ng/ml 46.7 92.3 10.500 (2.097 ~ 52.581) 0.004
 Total Sharp score 0.753 0.003 0.613 ~ 0.893 15 54.5 88.2 9.000 (2.359 ~ 34.334) 0.001
1st month         
 CRP 0.680 0.037 0.525 ~ 0.835 1.76 mg/dl 66.7 78.7 7.400 (1.567 ~ 34.935) 0.011
 Serum MMP-3 0.758 0.003 0.605 ~ 0.911 264 ng/ml 64.7 87.2 12.467 (3.175 ~ 48.950) < 0.001
3rd month         
 Serum MMP-3 0.766 0.002 0.606 ~ 0.926 178 ng/ml 64.7 87.2 15.857 (3.412 ~ 73.687) < 0.001
6th month         
 28SJC 0.667 0.052 0.503 ~ 0.832 NA NA NA NA NA
 CRP 0.681 0.035 0.525 ~ 0.838 0.64 mg/dl 58.3 79.5 5.444 (1.395 ~ 21.244) 0.015
 Serum MMP-3 0.830 < 0.001 0.696 ~ 0.963 161 ng/ml 75.0 90.0 27.000 (5.834 ~ 24.962) < 0.001
  1. aAccuracy of predictive value was determined by ROC curve analysis; OR of predictors was determined by univariate logistic regression analysis according to the cutoff point
  2. 28SJC 28-joint swollen joint count, PrGA provider global assessment of disease activity, CRP C-reactive protein, ESR erythrocyte sedimentation rate, MMP-3 matrix metalloproteinase-3, RF rheumatoid factor, anti-CCP anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody, DAS28 Disease Activity Score 28-joint assessment, SDAI simplified disease activity index, PPV positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value, ROC receiver operating characteristic; OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, NA not applicable