Table 3 Baseline predictors of radiographic progression with change in SHS above the median (i.e. > 12) up to 5 years

 Male sex

(0.64–2.46)

(0.46–1.98)

 Age (per SD)^b

(0.86–1.62)

(0.88–1.74)

 Time to first DMARD (per SD)^b

(0.80–1.45)

(0.74–1.53)

 BMI (per SD)^b

(0.67–1.29)

(0.59–1.19)

  Normal BMI^c (reference)

  Obese^c

(0.35–2.74)

(0.26–2.37)

  Obese or overweight^c

(0.37–1.34)

(0.33–1.34)

  Overweight^c

(0.33–1.27)

(0.31–1.33)

 Never smoker (reference)

 Current smoker

(0.99–4.73)

(0.80–4.16)

 Ever smoker

(0.93–3.57)

(0.76–3.16)

 Previous smoker

(0.72–3.37)

(0.61–3.17)

 RF positivity

(1.60–6.34)

NA

 Anti-CCP positivity

(1.24–4.94)

(0.64–3.13)

 Erosions present^d

(1.59–10.06)

NA

 DAS28 (per SD)^b

(0.78–1.47)

(0.75–1.49)

  Low/moderate (reference)

  High

(0.76–2.75)

(0.72–2.86)

 HAQ (per SD)^b

(0.73–1.34)

(0.78–1.49)

 ESR (per SD)^b

(1.23–2.44)

(1.10–2.24)

 CRP below median (reference)

 CRP above median (> 9 mg/l)

(1.11–3.88)

(0.84–3.19)

 Swollen joint count (per SD)^b

(0.68–1.30)

(0.66–1.32)

 Tender joint count (per SD)^b

(0.42–0.89)

(0.45–0.98)

 Patient’s global assessment (VAS; per SD)^b

(0.84–1.60)

(0.80–1.60)

 Pain (VAS; per SD)^b

(0.72–1.36)

(0.73–1.44)