Fig. 1

Goodness of fit of the physician’s global assessment of disease activity. Observed values of the (square root transformed) parameter (dark gray dots) for six randomly selected individuals were plotted against the predicted values by the model (dashed line) and the 95% CI (light gray area), showing that the predicted values corresponded well to observed patterns over time. Goodness of fit of the other outcome parameters was similar (not shown). Abbreviations: CI, credible interval; sqrt, square root; PGA, Physician’s global assessment of disease activity