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Table 3 Univariate and multivariate logistic regression for fulfillment of 2010 ACR/EULAR classification criteria within 3 years in seronegative patients

From: Outcome of patients with early arthritis without rheumatoid factor and ACPA and predictors of rheumatoid arthritis in the ESPOIR cohort

Baseline variables RA classification Univariate analysis Multivariate analysisa
AUC=0.905
Yes
267/323 (82.7%)
No
56/323 (17.3%)
OR (95% CI) p value* OR (95% CI) p value*
Sex (female vs male) 213 (79.8%) 39 (69.6%) 0.58 [0.31; 1.11] 0.096   
Age
Median>52 years
144 (53.9%) 25 (44.6%) 1.45 [0.81; 2.59] 0.206   
Menopause (n=252) 116 (54.5%) 14 (35.9%) 2.14 [1.05; 4.33] 0.033   
Baseline BMI
Median>24.5 kg/m 2
133 (50%) 25 (44.6%) 1.24 [0.69; 2.21] 0.466   
Family history of RA 38 (14.2%) 3 (5.4%) 2.93 [0.87; 9.86] 0.070**   
Trigger event 90 (33.7%) 8 (14.3%) 3.05 [1.38; 6.72] 0.004 3.57 [1.33; 9.60] 0.012
Bilateral involvement 240 (89.9%) 27 (48.2%) 9.55 [4.94; 18.44] <0.001 2.59 [1.14; 5.90] 0.023
Distal involvement 258 (96.6%) 41 (73.2%) 10.49 [4.31; 25.53] <0.001 3.87 [1.25; 11.93] 0.019
Proximal involvement 146 (54.7%) 16 (28.6%) 3.02 [1.61; 5.65] <0.001   
Additive involvement 52 (19.5%) 6 (10.7%) 2.02 [0.82; 4.95] 0.120 3.61 [1.09; 12.02] 0.036
Initial presentation:
 -acute 39 (14.6%) 9 (16.1%)     
 -subacute 76 (28.5%) 22 (39.3%) - 0.021
 -incidious 152 (56.9%) 25 (44.6%)
Extra-articular manifestation 148 (56.9%) 27 (49.1%) 1.37 [0.77; 2.45] 0.288   
Sicca syndrome 89 (33.3%) 13 (23.2%) 1.65 [0.85; 3.23] 0.139   
Family history of psoriasis 36 (13.5%) 2 (3.6%) 4.21 [0.98; 18.02] 0.036**   
Psoriasis 18 (6.7%) 2 (3.6%) 1.95 [0.44 ; 8.66] 0.371**   
Pain at rest (VAS, 0-100)
Median>34
150 (56.2%) 15 (26.8%) 3.50 [1.85; 6.64] <0.001 2.76 [1.25; 6.11] 0.012
Pain on mobility (VAS, 0-100)
Median>55
145 (54.3%) 16 (28.6%) 2.97 [1.59; 5.57] <0.001   
Morning stiffness duration
Median> 38 min
157 (58.8%) 19 (33.9%) 2.78 [1.52; 5.09] <0.001 2.62 [1.20; 5.69] 0.015
TJC
Median>7
155 (58%) 2 (3.6%) 37.37 [8.92; 156.5] <0.001** 23.73 [5.25; 107.33] <0.001
SJC
Median>6
163 (61%) 11 (19.6%) 6.41 [3.17; 12.96] <0.001   
DAS28
Median >4.9
164 (62.1%) 11 (19.6%) 6.71 [3.32; 13.57] <0.001   
ANA
Positive if >1/160
31(11.6%) 9 (16.1%) 0.69 [0.31; 1.55] 0.368   
HAQ >0.9 133 (49.8%) 17 (30.4%) 2.28 [1.23; 4.22] 0.008   
IgA-RF 30 (11.2%) 3 (5.4%) 2.24 [0.66; 7.60] 0.187   
HLA-DRΒ1*03 gene 54 (20.2%) 15 (26.8%) 0.69 [0.36; 1.34] 0.276   
mTSS
Median >2
132 (51.6%) 18 (32.1%) 2.25 [1.22; 4.14] 0.008 2.56 [1.18; 5.56] 0.018
Typical RA erosion [17] 60 (24.8%) 0 - <0.001   
  1. * chi-square test **Fisher’s exact test
  2. aIncluded variables: sex, initial presentation, initial trigger event, morning stiffness, pain at rest and at mobility, number of tender and swollen joints, HAQ, feet erosion, wrists and hands erosion, bilateral, proximal or distal involvement, additive involvement, sicca syndrome
  3. AUC area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, BMI body mass index, VAS visual analog scale, TJC tender joint count, SJC swollen joint count, DAS28 Disease Activity Score in 28 joints, ANA antinuclear antibodies, RF rheumatoid arthritis, mTSS modified total Sharp score, RA rheumatoid arthritis
  4. P values were checkedEntries in italics were significant