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Fig. 3 | Arthritis Research & Therapy

Fig. 3

From: A search to the target tissue in which RA-specific inflammation starts: a detailed MRI study to improve identification of RA-specific features in the phase of clinically suspect arthralgia

Fig. 3

Observed proportion of patients that developed clinical apparent inflammatory arthritis and rheumatoid arthritis in the first year (PPVs in black) per risk category in the discovery and validation cohorts. IA, clinically apparent Inflammatory Arthritis; RA, rheumatoid arthritis; locations, number of locations with subclinical inflammation. Upper left graph: positive predictive values on IA in the discovery cohort; no subclinical inflammation (5% (95% confidence interval 3–11%, n = 111), 1–2 locations (18% (11–29%), n = 67), or ≥ 3 locations (19% (9–36%), n = 31) with subclinical inflammation but without MCP-extensor peritendinitis; and 1–2 locations (57% (25–84%), n = 7) or ≥ 3 locations (67% (35%–88%), n = 9) with MCP-extensor peritendinitis. Upper right graph: positive predictive values on RA in the discovery cohort; no subclinical inflammation (4% (95% CI 1–9%, n = 111), 1–2 locations (12% (6–22%), n = 67), or ≥ 3 locations (16% (7–33%), n = 31) with subclinical inflammation but without MCP-extensor peritendinitis; and 1–2 locations (43% (16–75%), n = 7) or ≥ 3 locations (67% (35–88%), n = 9) with MCP-extensor peritendinitis. Lower left graph: positive predictive values on IA in the validation cohort; no subclinical inflammation (4% (95% confidence interval 2–9%, n = 135), 1–2 locations (19% (10–33%), n = 47), or ≥ 3 locations (59% (35–78%), n = 17) with subclinical inflammation but without MCP-extensor peritendinitis; and 1–2 locations (50% (3–97%), n = 2) or ≥ 3 locations (63% (31–86%), n = 8) with MCP-extensor peritendinitis. Lower right graph: positive predictive values on RA in the validation cohort; no subclinical inflammation (1% (95% CI 0–5%, n = 135), 1–2 locations (13% (6–25%), n = 47), or ≥ 3 locations (53% (31–74%), n = 17) with subclinical inflammation but without MCP-extensor peritendinitis; and 1–2 locations (50% (3–97%), n = 2) or ≥ 3 locations (50% (22–78%), n = 8) with MCP-extensor peritendinitis

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