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Table 1 Clinical data, imaging and patient history used for the creation of the score (CIP-DUS)

From: The first composite score predicting Digital Ulcers in systemic sclerosis patients using Clinical data, Imaging and Patient history—CIP-DUS

 FeatureOR (95% CI)P valueSensitivity*Specificity*AUC/cvAUCWeight
Clinical data and patient historySmoker at baselineOR 2.4 (0.6–8.7)0.2822.788.9
SSc diffuse subtypeOR 4.1 (1.5–11.7)0.0159.1%74.1%0.67/0.651
Modified Rodnan skin score > 8OR 9.4 (3.0–29.2)< 0.0168.2%81.5%0.75/0.732
Pulmonary arterial hypertensionOR 4.7 (1.2–18.7)0.0327.3%92.6%0.56/0.541
Present digital ulcers or pitting scars at baselineOR 15.7 (3.3–74.3)< 0.0190.9%61.1%0.76/0.763
History of digital ulcer or pitting scarsOR 36.2 (2.1–626.9)< 0.01100.0%44.4%0.78/0.773
NCNC pattern (defined by Cutolo et al. 2000)OR 18.6 (1.1–326.4)< 0.01100.0%28.9%  
- Early    0.58/0.551
- Active    0.69/0.672
- Late    0.78/0.763
Late NC pattern vs. other NC patternsOR 1.476 (0.5–4.0)0.4650.0%59.6%0.56/0.55
Reduced capillary density (n < 7/mm) in digit III of the right hand in NCOR 9.0 (1.1–73.6)0.0394.7%33.3%0.62/0.611
FOIMissing initial enhancement in FOI in digit III of the right handOR 3.9 (1.2–12.8)0.0356.3%75.0%0.63/0.611
Missing initial enhancement in FOI in ≥ 1 digitOR 0.9 (0.3–2.8)1.00 (ns)62.5%34.1%
Complete disruption in FOI in ≥ 1 digitOR 1.3 (0.3–5.9)0.70 (ns)25.0%84.1%
CDUSPercentage of pathologic (i.e. narrowed or occluded) vessels > 35% in CDUSOR 4.3 (1.5–12.4)0.0168.2%66. 7%0.67/0.641
≥ 1 pathologic vessel in CDUS in in digit III of the right handOR 3.8 (1.0–14.6)0.0590.928.3
  1. AUC area under curve estimated in the source sample, cvAUC area under curve estimated by k-fold cross-validation, OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, NC nailfold capillaroscopy, FOI fluorescence optical imaging, CDUS colour Doppler ultrasound
  2. *Sensitivity and specificity were only calculated for parameters included in the CIP-DUS