The combination of an inflammatory peripheral blood gene expression and imaging biomarkers enhance prediction of radiographic progression in knee osteoarthritis

Attur, Mukundan; Krasnokutsky, Svetlana; Zhou, Hua; Samuels, Jonathan; Chang, Gregory; Bencardino, Jenny; Rosenthal, Pamela; Rybak, Leon; Huebner, Janet L.; Kraus, Virginia B.; Abramson, Steven B.

doi:10.1186/s13075-020-02298-6

Table 5 The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) comparing baseline PBL inflammatory gene expression biomarkers, with and without medial BML, to predict 24-month fast radiographic knee OA progression in the combined NYU and OAI cohorts

From: The combination of an inflammatory peripheral blood gene expression and imaging biomarkers enhance prediction of radiographic progression in knee osteoarthritis

NYU + OAI combined–biomarkers			Biomarkers + baseline medial BML
Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0.0 mm)	AUC (95% CI)	Adjusted p value for model	Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0.0 mm)	AUC (95% CI)	p value for model	p value for model performance increase
Age	0.46 (0.38–0.54)	0.27	Age	0.62 (0.54–0.69)	0.005	0.002
Sex	0.52 (0.44–0.60)	0.31	Sex	0.60 (0.52–0.68)	0.006	0.002
BMI	0.54 (0.46–0.62)	0.27	BMI	0.61 (0.53–0.69)	0.005	0.041
ASB	0.50 (0.42–0.58)	0.498	ASB	0.59 (0.51–0.67)	0.014	0.016
COX-2	0.61 (0.53–0.68)	0.015	COX-2	0.65 (0.58–0.73)	< 0.0001	0.074
IL-1β	0.57 (0.49–0.65)	0.081	IL-1β	0.62 (0.54–0.70)	0.004	0.088
TNFα	0.50 (0.42–0.58)	0.498	TNFα	0.59 (0.51–0.67)	0.020	0.021
IL1β + COX2	0.56 (0.48–0.64)	0.094	IL1β + COX2	0.61 (0.54–0.69)	0.005	0.085
IL1β + TNFα	0.52 (0.43–0.60)	0.381	IL1β + TNFα	0.60 (0.52–0.68)	0.011	0.024
COX2 + TNFα	0.57 (0.49–0.65)	0.081	COX2 + TNFα	0.62 (0.54–0.69)	0.005	0.136
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα	0.62 (0.54–0.69)	0.007	IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα	0.66 (0.58–0.73)	< 0.0001	0.114
Baseline BML	0.59 (0.51–0.67)	0.035	Baseline BML
Osteophytes MFC	0.47 (0.39–0.55)	0.309	Osteophytes MFC	0.57 (0.49–0.65)	0.035	0.010
Osteophytes MTP	0.48 (0.40–0.56)	0.356	Osteophytes MTP	0.58 (0.50–0.66)	0.035	0.011
Osteophytes LFC	0.58 (0.50–0.66)	0.072	Osteophytes LFC	0.61 (0.53–0.69)	0.005	0.096
Osteophytes LTP	0.47 (0.39–0.55)	0.309	Osteophytes LTP	0.58 (0.50–0.66)	0.029	0.007
Osteophytes MFC + MTP	0.46 (0.38–0.54)	0.207	Osteophytes MFC + MTP	0.57 (0.48–0.65)	0.056	0.006
Osteophytes LFC + LTP	0.57 (0.49–0.65)	0.081	Osteophytes LFC + LTP	0.61 (0.53–0.69)	0.006	0.083
ALL osteophytes	0.57 (0.49–0.65)	0.081	ALL osteophytes	0.61 (0.53–0.69)	0.005	0.064
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP	0.59 (0.51–0.67)	0.038	IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP	0.63 (0.55–0.71)	0.002	0.114
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP	0.67 (0.59–0.74)	< 0.0001	IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP	0.68 (0.60–0.76)	< 0.0001	0.271
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes	0.67 (0.59–0.74)	< 0.0001	IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes	0.68 (0.61–0.76)	< 0.0001	0.223
ALL markers	0.68 (0.61–0.76)	< 0.0001

ASB age, sex, and BMI, PBL peripheral blood leukocyte, BML bone marrow lesion, JSN joint space narrowing, COX-2 cyclooxygenase-2, IL-1β interleukin-1 beta, TNFα tumor necrosis factor alpha, 95% CI 95% confidence intervals. Medial (MTP) and lateral (LTP) osteophytes in tibial plateau and medial (MFC) and lateral (LFC) femoral condyle. All comparisons are versus non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0 mm). Significant p values are represented in bold font. Total number of progressors (n = 85) and non-progressors (n = 115) in the combined cohort

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