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Table 5 The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) comparing baseline PBL inflammatory gene expression biomarkers, with and without medial BML, to predict 24-month fast radiographic knee OA progression in the combined NYU and OAI cohorts

From: The combination of an inflammatory peripheral blood gene expression and imaging biomarkers enhance prediction of radiographic progression in knee osteoarthritis

NYU + OAI combined–biomarkers Biomarkers + baseline medial BML
Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors
(JSN ≤ 0.0 mm)
AUC (95% CI) Adjusted p value for model Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors
(JSN ≤ 0.0 mm)
AUC (95% CI) p value for model p value for model performance increase
Age 0.46 (0.38–0.54) 0.27 Age 0.62 (0.54–0.69) 0.005 0.002
Sex 0.52 (0.44–0.60) 0.31 Sex 0.60 (0.52–0.68) 0.006 0.002
BMI 0.54 (0.46–0.62) 0.27 BMI 0.61 (0.53–0.69) 0.005 0.041
ASB 0.50 (0.42–0.58) 0.498 ASB 0.59 (0.51–0.67) 0.014 0.016
COX-2 0.61 (0.53–0.68) 0.015 COX-2 0.65 (0.58–0.73) < 0.0001 0.074
IL-1β 0.57 (0.49–0.65) 0.081 IL-1β 0.62 (0.54–0.70) 0.004 0.088
TNFα 0.50 (0.42–0.58) 0.498 TNFα 0.59 (0.51–0.67) 0.020 0.021
IL1β + COX2 0.56 (0.48–0.64) 0.094 IL1β + COX2 0.61 (0.54–0.69) 0.005 0.085
IL1β + TNFα 0.52 (0.43–0.60) 0.381 IL1β + TNFα 0.60 (0.52–0.68) 0.011 0.024
COX2 + TNFα 0.57 (0.49–0.65) 0.081 COX2 + TNFα 0.62 (0.54–0.69) 0.005 0.136
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα 0.62 (0.54–0.69) 0.007 IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα 0.66 (0.58–0.73) < 0.0001 0.114
Baseline BML 0.59 (0.51–0.67) 0.035 Baseline BML    
Osteophytes MFC 0.47 (0.39–0.55) 0.309 Osteophytes MFC 0.57 (0.49–0.65) 0.035 0.010
Osteophytes MTP 0.48 (0.40–0.56) 0.356 Osteophytes MTP 0.58 (0.50–0.66) 0.035 0.011
Osteophytes LFC 0.58 (0.50–0.66) 0.072 Osteophytes LFC 0.61 (0.53–0.69) 0.005 0.096
Osteophytes LTP 0.47 (0.39–0.55) 0.309 Osteophytes LTP 0.58 (0.50–0.66) 0.029 0.007
Osteophytes MFC + MTP 0.46 (0.38–0.54) 0.207 Osteophytes MFC + MTP 0.57 (0.48–0.65) 0.056 0.006
Osteophytes LFC + LTP 0.57 (0.49–0.65) 0.081 Osteophytes LFC + LTP 0.61 (0.53–0.69) 0.006 0.083
ALL osteophytes 0.57 (0.49–0.65) 0.081 ALL osteophytes 0.61 (0.53–0.69) 0.005 0.064
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP 0.59 (0.51–0.67) 0.038 IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP 0.63 (0.55–0.71) 0.002 0.114
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP 0.67 (0.59–0.74) < 0.0001 IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP 0.68 (0.60–0.76) < 0.0001 0.271
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes 0.67 (0.59–0.74) < 0.0001 IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes 0.68 (0.61–0.76) < 0.0001 0.223
ALL markers 0.68 (0.61–0.76) < 0.0001     
  1. ASB age, sex, and BMI, PBL peripheral blood leukocyte, BML bone marrow lesion, JSN joint space narrowing, COX-2 cyclooxygenase-2, IL-1β interleukin-1 beta, TNFα tumor necrosis factor alpha, 95% CI 95% confidence intervals. Medial (MTP) and lateral (LTP) osteophytes in tibial plateau and medial (MFC) and lateral (LFC) femoral condyle. All comparisons are versus non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0 mm). Significant p values are represented in bold font. Total number of progressors (n = 85) and non-progressors (n = 115) in the combined cohort