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Table 7 The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) comparing baseline PBL inflammatory gene expression biomarkers, with and without medial BML, to predict 24-month fast radiographic knee OA progression in the NYU cohort (N = 111)

From: The combination of an inflammatory peripheral blood gene expression and imaging biomarkers enhance prediction of radiographic progression in knee osteoarthritis

Biomarkers Biomarkers + baseline medial BML
Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0.0 mm) AUC (95% CI) Adjusted p value for model Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0.0 mm) AUC (95% CI) Adjusted p value for model p value for model performance increase
Age 0.41 (0.28–0.53) 0.102 Age 0.69 (0.57–0.80) 0.002 0.001
Sex 0.53 (0.41–0.66) 0.305 Sex 0.62 (0.50–0.74) 0.024 0.021
BMI 0.60 (0.48–0.72) 0.102 BMI 0.67 (0.56–0.79) 0.003 0.102
ASB 0.56 (0.44–0.69) 0.229 ASB 0.65 (0.53–0.77) 0.015 0.075
COX-2 0.68 (0.56–0.80) 0.005 COX-2 0.74 (0.63–0.85) < 0.0001 0.063
IL-1β 0.57 (0.44–0.69) 0.229 IL-1β 0.65 (0.53–0.77) 0.015 0.073
TNFα 0.55 (0.42–0.67) 0.255 TNFα 0.63 (0.51–0.75) 0.020 0.068
IL1β + COX2 0.58 (0.46–0.71) 0.209 IL1β + COX2 0.65 (0.53–0.77) 0.015 0.109
IL1β + TNFα 0.56 (0.43–0.68) 0.229 IL1β + TNFα 0.64 (0.52–0.76) 0.016 0.073
COX2 + TNFα 0.54 (0.41–0.66) 0.287 COX2 + TNFα 0.63 (0.51–0.75) 0.020 0.066
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα 0.67 (0.55–0.79) 0.009 IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα 0.74 (0.63–0.85) < 0.0001 0.038
Baseline BML 0.65 (0.53–0.77) 0.020 Baseline BML 0.65 (0.53–0.77) 0.015 1.000
Osteophytes MFC 0.56 (0.44–0.68) 0.229 Osteophytes MFC 0.63 (0.51–0.75) 0.020 0.075
Osteophytes MTP 0.58 (0.45–0.70) 0.220 Osteophytes MTP 0.63 (0.51–0.76) 0.020 0.128
Osteophytes LFC 0.57 (0.44–0.69) 0.229 Osteophytes LFC 0.64 (0.52–0.76) 0.017 0.095
Osteophytes LTP 0.53 (0.41–0.66) 0.309 Osteophytes LTP 0.65 (0.53–0.77) 0.015 0.034
Osteophytes MFC + MTP 0.55 (0.42–0.68) 0.249 Osteophytes MFC + MTP 0.61 (0.49–0.74) 0.035 0.095
Osteophytes LFC + LTP 0.59 (0.46–0.71) 0.209 Osteophytes LFC + LTP 0.65 (0.53–0.77) 0.015 0.072
ALL osteophytes 0.57 (0.44–0.69) 0.229 ALL osteophytes 0.62 (0.49–0.74) 0.035 0.101
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP 0.68 (0.57–0.80) 0.005 IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP 0.72 (0.61–0.83) < 0.0001 0.126
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP 0.70 (0.59–0.82) 0.003 IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP 0.75 (0.64–0.85) < 0.0001 0.074
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes 0.70 (0.58–0.81) 0.003 IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes 0.73 (0.62–0.84) < 0.0001 0.135
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + BML + ALL osteophytes 0.73 (0.62–0.83) < 0.0001 IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + BML + ALL osteophytes 0.73 (0.62–0.84) < 0.0001 1.000
Meniscus sum 0.55 (0.43–0.68) 0.244 Meniscus sum 0.63 (0.51–0.75) 0.020 0.084
IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + Meniscus sum 0.69 (0.58–0.81) 0.003 IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + Meniscus sum 0.73 (0.62–0.83) < 0.0001 0.152
  1. ASB age, sex, and BMI, PBL peripheral blood leukocyte, BML bone marrow lesion, JSN joint space narrowing, COX-2 cyclooxygenase-2, IL-1β interleukin-1 beta, TNFα tumor necrosis factor alpha, 95% CI 95% confidence intervals. Medial (MTP) and lateral (LTP) osteophytes in tibial plateau and medial (MFC) and lateral (LFC) femoral condyle. All comparisons are versus non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0 mm). Total number of progressors (n = 44) and non-progressors (n = 39)