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Table 7 The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) comparing baseline PBL inflammatory gene expression biomarkers, with and without medial BML, to predict 24-month fast radiographic knee OA progression in the NYU cohort (N = 111)

From: The combination of an inflammatory peripheral blood gene expression and imaging biomarkers enhance prediction of radiographic progression in knee osteoarthritis

Biomarkers

Biomarkers + baseline medial BML

Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0.0 mm)

AUC (95% CI)

Adjusted p value for model

Fast progressors (JSN > 0.5 mm) vs. non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0.0 mm)

AUC (95% CI)

Adjusted p value for model

p value for model performance increase

Age

0.41 (0.28–0.53)

0.102

Age

0.69 (0.57–0.80)

0.002

0.001

Sex

0.53 (0.41–0.66)

0.305

Sex

0.62 (0.50–0.74)

0.024

0.021

BMI

0.60 (0.48–0.72)

0.102

BMI

0.67 (0.56–0.79)

0.003

0.102

ASB

0.56 (0.44–0.69)

0.229

ASB

0.65 (0.53–0.77)

0.015

0.075

COX-2

0.68 (0.56–0.80)

0.005

COX-2

0.74 (0.63–0.85)

< 0.0001

0.063

IL-1β

0.57 (0.44–0.69)

0.229

IL-1β

0.65 (0.53–0.77)

0.015

0.073

TNFα

0.55 (0.42–0.67)

0.255

TNFα

0.63 (0.51–0.75)

0.020

0.068

IL1β + COX2

0.58 (0.46–0.71)

0.209

IL1β + COX2

0.65 (0.53–0.77)

0.015

0.109

IL1β + TNFα

0.56 (0.43–0.68)

0.229

IL1β + TNFα

0.64 (0.52–0.76)

0.016

0.073

COX2 + TNFα

0.54 (0.41–0.66)

0.287

COX2 + TNFα

0.63 (0.51–0.75)

0.020

0.066

IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα

0.67 (0.55–0.79)

0.009

IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα

0.74 (0.63–0.85)

< 0.0001

0.038

Baseline BML

0.65 (0.53–0.77)

0.020

Baseline BML

0.65 (0.53–0.77)

0.015

1.000

Osteophytes MFC

0.56 (0.44–0.68)

0.229

Osteophytes MFC

0.63 (0.51–0.75)

0.020

0.075

Osteophytes MTP

0.58 (0.45–0.70)

0.220

Osteophytes MTP

0.63 (0.51–0.76)

0.020

0.128

Osteophytes LFC

0.57 (0.44–0.69)

0.229

Osteophytes LFC

0.64 (0.52–0.76)

0.017

0.095

Osteophytes LTP

0.53 (0.41–0.66)

0.309

Osteophytes LTP

0.65 (0.53–0.77)

0.015

0.034

Osteophytes MFC + MTP

0.55 (0.42–0.68)

0.249

Osteophytes MFC + MTP

0.61 (0.49–0.74)

0.035

0.095

Osteophytes LFC + LTP

0.59 (0.46–0.71)

0.209

Osteophytes LFC + LTP

0.65 (0.53–0.77)

0.015

0.072

ALL osteophytes

0.57 (0.44–0.69)

0.229

ALL osteophytes

0.62 (0.49–0.74)

0.035

0.101

IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP

0.68 (0.57–0.80)

0.005

IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes MFC + MTP

0.72 (0.61–0.83)

< 0.0001

0.126

IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP

0.70 (0.59–0.82)

0.003

IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + osteophytes LFC + LTP

0.75 (0.64–0.85)

< 0.0001

0.074

IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes

0.70 (0.58–0.81)

0.003

IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + ALL osteophytes

0.73 (0.62–0.84)

< 0.0001

0.135

IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + BML + ALL osteophytes

0.73 (0.62–0.83)

< 0.0001

IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + BML + ALL osteophytes

0.73 (0.62–0.84)

< 0.0001

1.000

Meniscus sum

0.55 (0.43–0.68)

0.244

Meniscus sum

0.63 (0.51–0.75)

0.020

0.084

IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + Meniscus sum

0.69 (0.58–0.81)

0.003

IL-1β + COX-2 + TNFα + Meniscus sum

0.73 (0.62–0.83)

< 0.0001

0.152

  1. ASB age, sex, and BMI, PBL peripheral blood leukocyte, BML bone marrow lesion, JSN joint space narrowing, COX-2 cyclooxygenase-2, IL-1β interleukin-1 beta, TNFα tumor necrosis factor alpha, 95% CI 95% confidence intervals. Medial (MTP) and lateral (LTP) osteophytes in tibial plateau and medial (MFC) and lateral (LFC) femoral condyle. All comparisons are versus non-progressors (JSN ≤ 0 mm). Total number of progressors (n = 44) and non-progressors (n = 39)