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Table 4 Reclassification of patients by the MBDA-based CVD risk score versus: A, age + sex model and B, clinical + CRP model

From: Derivation and internal validation of a multi-biomarker-based cardiovascular disease risk prediction score for rheumatoid arthritis patients

A.

CVD risk predicted by age + sex model

CVD risk predicted by MBDA-based CVD model

Observed cumulative incidence

Total patients (n) within category of age + sex model and % reclassified

Low (< 1.3%)

Borderline (1.3 to < 1.8%)

Intermediate (1.8 to < 5.2%)

High (≥ 5.2%)

Low (< 1.3%)

2.6%

0.9%

0.9%

< 0.1%

1.4%

460 (42.6%)

Borderline (1.3 to < 1.8%)

1.7%

1.4%

2.5%

0.2%

1.3%

600 (75.3%)

Intermediate (1.8 to < 5.2%)

4.9%

7.3%

37.1%

11.0%

3.7%

6185 (38.4%)

High (≥ 5.2%)

0.1%

0.6%

11.8%

17.0%

7.8%

3030 (42.4%)

Observed cumulative incidence

0.9%

1.7%

3.1%

9.9%

–

–

B.

CVD risk predicted by clinical + CRP model

CVD risk predicted by MBDA-based CVD model

Observed cumulative incidence

Total patients (n) within category of clinical + CRP model and % reclassified

Low (< 1.3%)

Borderline (1.3 to < 1.8%)

Intermediate (1.8 to 5.2%)

High (≥ 5.2%)

Low (< 1.3%)

4.4%

1.2%

0.5%

0.0%

1.3%

627 (28.2%)

Borderline (1.3 to < 1.8%)

3.0%

3.0%

2.3%

< 0.1%

1.3%

853 (64.4%)

Intermediate (1.8 to < 5.2%)

2.0%

6.0%

41.5%

5.4%

3.1%

5644 (24.4%)

High (≥ 5.2%)

0

< 0.1%

7.9%

22.7%

9.3%

3151 (26.0%)

Observed cumulative incidence

0.9%

1.7%

3.1%

9.9%

–

–

  1. Values in the 16 cross-classification cells are percentages of the total validation dataset (N = 10,275). Boldfaced values represent patients who were reclassified, i.e., they were classified differently by the MBDA-based CVD model and the other model. Observed cumulative incidence values represent CVD event rates among patients in a row or column. Percentages of patients reclassified are of the total number of patients in that row. Clinical + CRP model includes age + sex + tobacco use + diabetes + hypertension + history of CVD (excluding MI and stroke) and CRP
  2. CVD cardiovascular disease, MBDA multi-biomarker disease activity