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Table 2 Results of logistic regression models for incident of KOA generated from 8193 participants in CHARLS 2011–2015

From: Development of a model for predicting the 4-year risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in China: a longitudinal cohort study

Predictors Total N KOA case n (%) Univariable OR (95% CI) Multivariable OR (95% CI)
Age (years)
 45–49 1616 132 (8.17) Reference Reference
 50–54 1241 112 (9.02) 1.12 (0.86–1.45) 1.06 (0.81–1.39)
 55–59 1773 161 (9.08) 1.12 (0.88–1.43) 1.00 (0.78–1.29)
 60–64 1477 183 (12.39) 1.59 (1.26–2.01)** 1.38 (1.08–1.77)**
 65–69 989 121 (12.23) 1.57 (1.21–2.03)** 1.31 (1.00–1.72)**
 ≥ 70 1097 106 (9.66) 1.20 (0.92–1.57) 0.95 (0.71–1.26)
Sex
 Male 3942 278 (7.05) Reference Reference
 Female 4251 537 (12.63) 1.91 (1.64–2.22)** 1.51 (1.22–1.87)***
BMI level
 Normal weight 318 35 (11.01) Reference
 Under weight 5198 503 (9.68) 1.15 (0.80–1.66)
 Overweight 2201 225 (10.22) 1.06 (0.90–1.25)
 Obese 476 52 (10.92) 1.14 (0.85–1.55)
Waist circumference, cm in male/female
 < 85/80 3313 307 (9.27) Reference Reference
 85~90/80~85 1414 144 (10.18) 1.11 (0.90–1.37) 1.07 (0.86–1.33)
 90~95/85~90 1348 141 (10.46) 1.14 (0.93–1.41) 1.06 (0.85–1.33)
 > 95/90 2118 223 (10.53) 1.15 (0.96–1.38) 1.06 (0.86–1.32)
Residence area
 Urban 2787 225 (8.07) Reference Reference
 Rural 5406 590 (10.91) 1.39 (1.19–1.64)** 1.24 (1.05–1.47)*
Smoke behavior
 No smoking 4945 571 (11.55) Reference Reference
 Ex-smoking 687 63 (9.17) 0.77 (0.59–1.02) 0.98 (0.71–1.35)
 Current smoking 2561 181 (7.07) 0.58 (0.49–0.69)** 0.85 (0.68–1.08)
ADL/IADL difficulty
 No 6283 496 (7.89) Reference Reference
 Yes 1910 319 (16.7) 2.34 (2.01–2.72)** 1.49 (1.26–1.76)***
MS
 No 6794 672 (9.89) Reference Reference
 Yee 1399 143 (10.22) 1.13 (0.68–1.89) 1.03 (0.86–1.23)
Hip fracture
 No 7941 774 (9.75) Reference Reference
 Yes 252 41 (16.27) 1.80 (1.28–2.53)** 1.53 (1.07–2.20)*
Depression
 No 6132 430 (7.01) Reference Reference
 Mild 1896 335 (17.67) 2.85 (2.44–3.32)** 2.04 (1.73–2.41)***
 Moderate-to-severe 165 50 (30.3) 5.77 (4.08–8.15)** 3.34 (2.32–4.82)***
Comorbidities
 None 3778 280 (7.41) Reference Reference
 1~2 3659 406 (11.1) 1.56 (1.33–1.83)** 1.25 (1.05–1.48)*
 ≥ 3 756 129 (17.06) 2.57 (2.05–3.22)** 1.54 (1.19–1.98)**
Health status
 Very good 286 8 (2.8) Reference Reference
 Good 1075 38 (3.53) 1.27 (0.59–2.769) 1.13 (0.52–2.46)
 Fair 2752 214 (7.78) 2.93 (1.43–6.00)** 2.21 (1.07–4.54)*
 Poor 2957 350 (11.84) 4.67 (2.29–9.50)** 2.99 (1.46–6.13)**
 Very poor 1120 205 (18.3) 7.77 (3.79–15.98)** 3.67 (1.76–7.63)***
Physical Activity Score
 VPA score
  No PA 4942 480 (9.71) Reference Reference
  Low level 590 66 (11.19) 1.17 (0.89–1.54) 1.15 (0.86–1.53)
  Middle-to-high level 2661 269 (10.11) 1.05 (0.89–1.22) 1.03 (0.87–1.22)
 MPA score
  No PA 3192 278 (8.71) Reference Reference
  Low level 891 93 (10.44) 1.22 (0.95–1.56) 1.35 (1.02–1.73)*
  Middle-to-high level 4110 444 (10.8) 1.27 (1.08–1.49)** 1.31 (1.10–1.56)**
 LPA score
  No PA 1586 155 (9.77) Reference
  Low level 1389 144 (10.37) 1.07 (0.84–1.36)
  Middle-to-high level, 5218 516 (9.89) 1.01 (0.84–1.22)
  1. *P ≤ 0.05, **P ≤ 0.01, ***P < 0.001; ADL activities of daily living, BMI body mass index, 95% CI 95% confidence interval, IADL instrumental activities of daily living, LPA light physical activity, MPA moderate physical activity, MS metabolic syndrome, OR odds ratio, PA physical activity, VPA vigorous physical activity