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Table 2 Results of logistic regression models for incident of KOA generated from 8193 participants in CHARLS 2011–2015

From: Development of a model for predicting the 4-year risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in China: a longitudinal cohort study

Predictors Total N KOA case n (%) Univariable OR (95% CI) Multivariable OR (95% CI)
Age (years)
 45–49 1616 132 (8.17) Reference Reference
 50–54 1241 112 (9.02) 1.12 (0.86–1.45) 1.06 (0.81–1.39)
 55–59 1773 161 (9.08) 1.12 (0.88–1.43) 1.00 (0.78–1.29)
 60–64 1477 183 (12.39) 1.59 (1.26–2.01)** 1.38 (1.08–1.77)**
 65–69 989 121 (12.23) 1.57 (1.21–2.03)** 1.31 (1.00–1.72)**
 ≥ 70 1097 106 (9.66) 1.20 (0.92–1.57) 0.95 (0.71–1.26)
Sex
 Male 3942 278 (7.05) Reference Reference
 Female 4251 537 (12.63) 1.91 (1.64–2.22)** 1.51 (1.22–1.87)***
BMI level
 Normal weight 318 35 (11.01) Reference –
 Under weight 5198 503 (9.68) 1.15 (0.80–1.66) –
 Overweight 2201 225 (10.22) 1.06 (0.90–1.25) –
 Obese 476 52 (10.92) 1.14 (0.85–1.55) –
Waist circumference, cm in male/female
 < 85/80 3313 307 (9.27) Reference Reference
 85~90/80~85 1414 144 (10.18) 1.11 (0.90–1.37) 1.07 (0.86–1.33)
 90~95/85~90 1348 141 (10.46) 1.14 (0.93–1.41) 1.06 (0.85–1.33)
 > 95/90 2118 223 (10.53) 1.15 (0.96–1.38) 1.06 (0.86–1.32)
Residence area
 Urban 2787 225 (8.07) Reference Reference
 Rural 5406 590 (10.91) 1.39 (1.19–1.64)** 1.24 (1.05–1.47)*
Smoke behavior
 No smoking 4945 571 (11.55) Reference Reference
 Ex-smoking 687 63 (9.17) 0.77 (0.59–1.02) 0.98 (0.71–1.35)
 Current smoking 2561 181 (7.07) 0.58 (0.49–0.69)** 0.85 (0.68–1.08)
ADL/IADL difficulty
 No 6283 496 (7.89) Reference Reference
 Yes 1910 319 (16.7) 2.34 (2.01–2.72)** 1.49 (1.26–1.76)***
MS
 No 6794 672 (9.89) Reference Reference
 Yee 1399 143 (10.22) 1.13 (0.68–1.89) 1.03 (0.86–1.23)
Hip fracture
 No 7941 774 (9.75) Reference Reference
 Yes 252 41 (16.27) 1.80 (1.28–2.53)** 1.53 (1.07–2.20)*
Depression
 No 6132 430 (7.01) Reference Reference
 Mild 1896 335 (17.67) 2.85 (2.44–3.32)** 2.04 (1.73–2.41)***
 Moderate-to-severe 165 50 (30.3) 5.77 (4.08–8.15)** 3.34 (2.32–4.82)***
Comorbidities
 None 3778 280 (7.41) Reference Reference
 1~2 3659 406 (11.1) 1.56 (1.33–1.83)** 1.25 (1.05–1.48)*
 ≥ 3 756 129 (17.06) 2.57 (2.05–3.22)** 1.54 (1.19–1.98)**
Health status
 Very good 286 8 (2.8) Reference Reference
 Good 1075 38 (3.53) 1.27 (0.59–2.769) 1.13 (0.52–2.46)
 Fair 2752 214 (7.78) 2.93 (1.43–6.00)** 2.21 (1.07–4.54)*
 Poor 2957 350 (11.84) 4.67 (2.29–9.50)** 2.99 (1.46–6.13)**
 Very poor 1120 205 (18.3) 7.77 (3.79–15.98)** 3.67 (1.76–7.63)***
Physical Activity Score
 VPA score
  No PA 4942 480 (9.71) Reference Reference
  Low level 590 66 (11.19) 1.17 (0.89–1.54) 1.15 (0.86–1.53)
  Middle-to-high level 2661 269 (10.11) 1.05 (0.89–1.22) 1.03 (0.87–1.22)
 MPA score
  No PA 3192 278 (8.71) Reference Reference
  Low level 891 93 (10.44) 1.22 (0.95–1.56) 1.35 (1.02–1.73)*
  Middle-to-high level 4110 444 (10.8) 1.27 (1.08–1.49)** 1.31 (1.10–1.56)**
 LPA score
  No PA 1586 155 (9.77) Reference –
  Low level 1389 144 (10.37) 1.07 (0.84–1.36) –
  Middle-to-high level, 5218 516 (9.89) 1.01 (0.84–1.22) –
  1. *P ≤ 0.05, **P ≤ 0.01, ***P < 0.001; ADL activities of daily living, BMI body mass index, 95% CI 95% confidence interval, IADL instrumental activities of daily living, LPA light physical activity, MPA moderate physical activity, MS metabolic syndrome, OR odds ratio, PA physical activity, VPA vigorous physical activity
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Arthritis Research & Therapy

ISSN: 1478-6362

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