Table 2 Summary of the main studies related to the prediction of OA progression

Messent et al. 2005 [12]

King’s College London

(RG, 40)

23

KL ≥ 2

ΔJSN_M ≥ 1

No link was found between the degree of subchondral trabecular bone changes, analyzed by fractal signature analysis (FSA), and the rate of cartilage destruction, quantified by the annual rate of joint space narrowing (JSN)

Kraus et al. 2009 [14]

POP study

(CR, 123)

36

1 ≤ KL ≤ 3

ΔJSN_M ≥ 1

Baseline trabecular bone texture analysis (TBTA), measured by FSA, of the medial tibial plateau was predictive of medial knee JSN progression. The predictive model with maximum effectiveness combined FSA, knee alignment, traditional covariates, and bone mineral content at baseline (AUC 0.79)

Woloszynski et al. 2012 [43]

University of

Western Australia

(CR, 50)

48

KL ≥ 2

ΔJSN_M ≥ 1

Baseline TBTA, measured by the dissimilarity-based multiple classifier (DMC), of the tibial plateau was predictive of knee JSN progression (accuracy = 0.80, specificity = 0.82, and sensitivity = 0.78)

Woloszynski et al. 2012 [8]

Lund University

(CR, 105)

48

KL ≥ 2

ΔJSN_M ≥ 1

Baseline TBTA, measured by the signature dissimilarity measure method (SDM), of the tibial plateau was predictive of medial knee JSN progression (AUC = 0.77)

Kraus et al. 2013 [13]

Pfizer study

(CR, 58)

12–24

2 ≤ KL ≤ 3

JSW_M ≥ 2 mm

ΔJSW_M ≥ 5%

ΔJSA_M ≥ 5%

Bone trabecular integrity (BTI), measured by FSA, of the medial tibial plateau at baseline was predictive of 5% change in OA progression of joint space area (JSA) (AUC = 0.85)

Janvier et al. 2017 [11]

OAI

(CR, 1124)

48

2 ≤ KL ≤ 3

ΔJSN_M ≥ 1

Baseline TBTA of the tibial plateau at baseline was predictive of medial knee JSN progression. Best model included clinical covariates, JSN and TBTA, measured by Whittle estimator (Whe), (AUC = 0.75)

Kraus et al. 2018 [15]

FNIH

(CR&RG, 579)

24–48

1 ≤ KL ≤ 3

JSN_L < 2

ΔJSW_min ≥ 0.7

Using baseline TBTA, medial minimum joint space width (JSW) progression was characterized by thinner vertical and thicker horizontal trabeculae (best C-statistic = 0.649)