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Table 3 Baseline predictors for progression to IA in anti-CCP− individuals

From: Prioritising referrals of individuals at-risk of RA: guidance based on results of a 10-year national primary care observational study

Predictor

Non-progressors (n = 5587)

Progressors to IA (n = 53)

Univariable

OR (95% CI) P-value

Multivariable

OR (95% CI) P-value

Mean age (SD; range)

53 (14.7; 16–91)

60 (13.62; 30–82)

1.04 (1.02–1.06) P < 0.001

1.04 (1.02–1.07) P < 0.001

Female (%)

72

58

0.54 (0.31–0.94) P = 0.030

0.67 (0.35–1.28) P = 0.229

Family with RA (%)

38

33

0.758 (0.42–1.35) P = 0.349

1.14 (0.59–2.19) P = 0.683

Ever smoked (%)

38

43

1.25 (0.69–2.28) P = 0.462

1.11 (0.60–2.05) P = 0.730

Neck (%)

30

29

1.03 (0.57–1.8) P = 0.932

0.62 (0.29–1.30) P = 0.202

Shoulders (%)

41

59

1.99 (1.15–3.45) P = 0.014

1.95 (0.98–3.86) P = 0.056

Elbows (%)

29

40

1.58 (0.91–2.75) P = 0.104

1.32 (0.67–2.59) P = 0.413

Wrists (%)

38

47

1.43 (0.83–2.46) P = 0.193

1.18 (0.60–2.31) P = 0.625

Hands (%)

53

76

2.67 (1.43–5.02) P = 0.002

2.51 (1.17–5.39) P = 0.018

Thumbs (%)

36

49

1.70 (0.99–2.92) P = 0.054

1.23 (0.63–2.41) P = 0.541

Back (%)

33

25

0.66 (0.35–1.23) P = 0.190

0.66 (0.31–1.41) P = 0.279

Hips (%)

36

28

0.69 (0.38–1.26) P = 0.226

0.57 (0.28–1.17) P = 0.127

Knees (%)

55

72

2.07 (1.14–3.77) P = 0.018

3.03 (1.47–6.25) P = 0.003

Ankles (%)

30

23

0.68 (0.36–1.29) P = 0.239

0.55 (0.25–1.21) P = 0.140

Feet (%)

34

42

1.37 (0.79–2.38) P = 0.256

1.04 (0.52–2.06) P = 0.910