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Table 2 Predictive value for the progression from UA to RA within one year using different cut-off values for erosions in hands and/or feet

From: The prognostic value of baseline erosions in undifferentiated arthritis

Number of erosive joints n PPV (95% CI) NPV (95% CI) Specificity (95% CI) Sensitivity (95% CI) LR+ LR- AUC (SEM)
≥1 148 45 37-53 75 70-79 77 73-82 42 34-50 1.8 0.75 0.60 (0.028)
≥2 83 53 42-64 73 69-78 89 86-92 28 21-34 2.5 0.81 0.58 (0.028)
≥3 50 54 40-68 72 68-76 94 91-96 17 11-23 2.6 0.89 0.55 (0.028)
≥4 24 54 34-74 70 66-74 97 95-99 8 4-12 2.6 0.95 0.53 (0.028)
≥5 15 73 51-96 70 66-74 99 98-100 7 3-11 6.2 0.94 0.53 (0.028)
  1. n = number of UA patients positive for this cut off.
  2. AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; LR+ = positive likelihood ratio; LR- = negative likelihood ratio; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; RA = rheumatoid arthritis; SEM = standard error of measurement; UA = undifferentiated arthritis.