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Table 3 Predictive value for the progression from UA to RA within one year using the erosion score of the Sharp van der Heijde method with different cut-off values for erosions

From: The prognostic value of baseline erosions in undifferentiated arthritis

SHS erosion score n PPV (95% CI) NPV (95% CI) Specificity (95% CI) Sensitivity (95% CI) LR+ LR- AUC (SEM)
≥1 148 45 37-53 75 70-79 77 73-82 42 34-50 1.9 0.75 0.60 (0.028)
≥2 92 51 41-61 73 69-78 87 84-91 29 22-36 2.3 0.80 0.58 (0.028)
≥3 61 52 40-65 72 68-76 92 89-95 20 14-26 2.5 0.87 0.56 (0.028)
≥4 39 56 41-72 71 67-75 95 93-98 14 8-19 2.9 0.90 0.55 (0.028)
≥5 23 61 41-81 71 67-75 97 96-99 9 4-13 3.5 0.94 0.53 (0.028)
  1. n = number of UA patients positive for this cutoff.
  2. AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; LR+ = positive likelihood ratio; LR- = negative likelihood ratio; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; RA = rheumatoid arthritis; SEM = standard error of measurement; SHS = Sharp/van der Heijde scoring; UA = undifferentiated arthritis.