The prognostic value of baseline erosions in undifferentiated arthritis

Table 3 Predictive value for the progression from UA to RA within one year using the erosion score of the Sharp van der Heijde method with different cut-off values for erosions

SHS erosion score	n	PPV	(95% CI)	NPV	(95% CI)	Specificity	(95% CI)	Sensitivity	(95% CI)	LR+	LR-	AUC (SEM)
≥1	148	45	37-53	75	70-79	77	73-82	42	34-50	1.9	0.75	0.60 (0.028)
≥2	92	51	41-61	73	69-78	87	84-91	29	22-36	2.3	0.80	0.58 (0.028)
≥3	61	52	40-65	72	68-76	92	89-95	20	14-26	2.5	0.87	0.56 (0.028)
≥4	39	56	41-72	71	67-75	95	93-98	14	8-19	2.9	0.90	0.55 (0.028)
≥5	23	61	41-81	71	67-75	97	96-99	9	4-13	3.5	0.94	0.53 (0.028)

n = number of UA patients positive for this cutoff.
AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; LR+ = positive likelihood ratio; LR- = negative likelihood ratio; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; RA = rheumatoid arthritis; SEM = standard error of measurement; SHS = Sharp/van der Heijde scoring; UA = undifferentiated arthritis.

ISSN: 1478-6362