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Table 5 Predictive value for the progression from UA to RA within one year using different cut-off values for erosions in feet

From: The prognostic value of baseline erosions in undifferentiated arthritis

Number of erosive joints n PPV (95% CI) NPV (95% CI) Specificity (95% CI) Sensitivity (95% CI) LR+ LR- AUC (SEM)
≥1 89 49 39-60 73 69-77 87 84-91 28 21-34 2.2 0.83 0.57 (0.028)
≥2 42 60 48-74 72 68-76 95 93-98 16 10-21 3.3 0.89 0.55 (0.028)
≥3 18 67 45-88 70 66-74 98 97-100 8 3-12 4.5 0.94 0.53 (0.028)
≥4 9 67 36-98 70 66-74 99 98-100 4 1-7 4.5 0.97 0.52 (0.028)
≥5 5 80 45-115 70 66-74 100 99-100 3 0-5 8.9 0.98 0.51 (0.028)
  1. n = number of UA patients positive for this cutoff.
  2. AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; LR+ = positive likelihood ratio; LR- = negative likelihood ratio; NPV = negative predictive value; PPV = positive predictive value; RA = rheumatoid arthritis; SEM = standard error of measurement; UA = undifferentiated arthritis.