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Table 6 Predictive value for the progression from UA to RA within one year by location of erosive joints and cutoff of at least two erosive joints

From: The prognostic value of baseline erosions in undifferentiated arthritis

Location of erosions n PPV (95% CI) NPV (95% CI) Specificity (95% CI) Sensitivity (95% CI) LR+ LR- AUC (SEM)
Wrist 7 63.6 32-88 69.8 66-74 98.9 97-100 4.4 2-9 3.9 0.97 0.52 (0.028)
MCP 5 38.5 15-68 69.3 65-73 97.8 95-99 3.1 1-8 1.4 0.99 0.50 (0.028)
PIP 5 55.6 23-85 69.5 65-73 98.9 97-100 3.1 1-8 2.8 0.98 0.51 (0.028)
MTP 23 67.6 5-9 71.6 67-76 96.6 94-98 14.4 10-21 4.3 0.88 0.56 (0.028)
  1. n = number of UA patients positive for this cutoff.
  2. AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; LR+ = positive likelihood ratio; LR- = negative likelihood ratio; MCP = metacarpo-phalangeal joint; MTP = metatarso-phalangeal joint; NPV = negative predictive value; PIP = proximal inter-phalangeal joint; PPV = positive predictive value; RA = rheumatoid arthritis; SEM = standard error of measurement; UA = undifferentiated arthritis.