Skip to main content

Table 6 Predictive value for the progression from UA to RA within one year by location of erosive joints and cutoff of at least two erosive joints

From: The prognostic value of baseline erosions in undifferentiated arthritis

Location of erosions

n

PPV

(95% CI)

NPV

(95% CI)

Specificity

(95% CI)

Sensitivity

(95% CI)

LR+

LR-

AUC (SEM)

Wrist

7

63.6

32-88

69.8

66-74

98.9

97-100

4.4

2-9

3.9

0.97

0.52 (0.028)

MCP

5

38.5

15-68

69.3

65-73

97.8

95-99

3.1

1-8

1.4

0.99

0.50 (0.028)

PIP

5

55.6

23-85

69.5

65-73

98.9

97-100

3.1

1-8

2.8

0.98

0.51 (0.028)

MTP

23

67.6

5-9

71.6

67-76

96.6

94-98

14.4

10-21

4.3

0.88

0.56 (0.028)

  1. n = number of UA patients positive for this cutoff.
  2. AUC = area under the curve; CI = confidence interval; LR+ = positive likelihood ratio; LR- = negative likelihood ratio; MCP = metacarpo-phalangeal joint; MTP = metatarso-phalangeal joint; NPV = negative predictive value; PIP = proximal inter-phalangeal joint; PPV = positive predictive value; RA = rheumatoid arthritis; SEM = standard error of measurement; UA = undifferentiated arthritis.