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Table 2 Baseline predictors of the first ever cardiovascular event, page-adjusted Cox regression models

From: Predictors of the first cardiovascular event in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus - a prospective cohort study

 

Hazard Ratio

95% Confidence interval

P

Traditional risk factors

Age univariate

2.28*

1.67 to 2.10

< 0.0001

 

Age adjusted

 

Male gender

0.71

0.11 to 2.41

 

Smoking, ever

2.62

1.11 to 7.03

0.03

Hypertension

0.72

0.30 to 1.70

 

Systolic blood pressure

0.78

0.52 to 1.18

 

Hypercholesterolemia

1.37

0.61 to 3.14

 

Total cholesterol

1.19

0.81 to 1.74

 

LDL

1.23

0.80 to 1.89

 

HDL

0.77

0.34 to 1.62

 

Triglycerides†

1.21

0.86 to 1.69

 

ApoB/ApoA†

1.36

0.88 to 2.10

 

Diabetes

‡

‡

0.02

Manifestations of Lupus

Disease duration

1.28

0.98 to 1.68

 

Malar rash

1.09

0.72 to 1.67

 

Discoid lupus

0.80

0.45 to 1.26

 

Photosensitivity

0.69

0.46 to 1.04

 

Oral ulcers

1.40

0.90 to 2.14

 

Arthritis

§

§

0.002

Pleuritis

1.60

1.02 to 2.46

0.04

Pericarditis

1.35

0.77 to 2.16

 

Nephritis

1.31

0.85 to 1.97

 

Leukopenia

0.94

0.62 to 1.42

 

Thrombocytpenia

0.37

0.09 to 0.83

0.009

Neurologic disorder

0.78

0.48 to 1.44

 

Previous venous occlusion

1.88

1.16 to 2.90

0.01

SLICC>1

1.91

0.74 to 5.97

 

SLAM>6 at baseline

1.25

0.83 to 1.87

 

Medications

Months on steroid treatment

1.00

0.68 to 1.48

 

Cyclofosfamide treatment ever

0.60

0.01 to 2.03

 

Azathioprine at baseline

0.51

0.03 to 2.47

 

Chloroquine/Hydroxychloroquine at baseline

1.01

0.32 to 2.67

 

Warfarin at baseline

1.45

0.34 to 4.27

 

ASA at baseline

1.54

0.55 to 3.70

 

Autoantibodies against

dsDNA

1.41

0.57 to 3.25

 

CL IgG

2.57

1.13 to 6.13

0.02

CL IgM

1.35

0.45 to 3.41

 

β2GP1 IgG

2.57

1.13 to 5.99

0.02

Lupus anticoagulant

1.10

0.40 to 2.63

 

Any aPL

4.90

1.76 to 17.72

0.002

SSA

0.66

0.39 to 1.03

 

SSB

0.57

0.27 to 1.00

0.05

Sm

1.21

0.48 to 2.29

 

RNP

1.60

0.76 to 2.87

 

Markers of systemic inflammation

hs CRP†

1.36

0.85 to 2.18

 

Fibrinogen†

1.72

1.10 to 2.68

0.02

α-1 antitrypsine

1.49

1.01 to 2.18

 

SAA†

1.36

0.88 to 2.09

 

IL 6†

1.26

0.87 to 1.82

 

C3

0.92

0.63 to 1.35

 

C3d

1.38

0.85 to 2.22

 

C4

0.82

0.56 to 1.18

 

Markers of endothelial activation

sVCAM-1†

1.78

1.20 to 2.65

0.005

von Willebrand factor†

2.05

1.23 to 3.42

0.004

Markers of renal involvement

Creatinine†

1.17

0.74 to 1.85

 

MDRD

1.07

0.57 to 2.00

 

Blood urea nitrogen

1.15

0.75 to 1.77

 

Pathological urine

2.4

0.8 to 6.1

 

Other biomarkers

Albumin(g/l)

0.56

0.41 to 0.78

0.002

Homocystein (μmol/l)†

0.79

0.52 to 1.21

 
  1. Calculations were done using age-adjusted Cox regression. For continuous variables Hazard Ratio (HR) is given as risk per standard deviation, *For age HR is calculated per 10 years (HR/10 years). †calculations were done on log transformed values. P values ≤ 0.05 are presented. ‡ Infinite coefficient, due to no AE in the diabetes group. §Infinite coefficient, due to all AE in the arthritis group, confidence interval could thus not be determined for these two variables. Hypertension was defined as a systolic blood pressure >140 mm Hg, and/or a diastolic blood pressure >90 mmHg and/or present treatment for hypertension. Hypercholesterolemia was defined as a total cholesterol level >5.2 mmol/L.
  2. β2GP-1 = beta2glykoprotein-1; β2GP-1 IgG or a positive lupus anticoagulant test;
  3. any PL = positive antibody test against CL IgG or IgM; ApoB/ApoA = apolipoproteinB/A. Disease manifestations were defined according to the 1982 revised American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria for classification of SLE [19]; C = Complement factor; C3d = Complement factor 3 degradation products; CL = cardiolipin; dsDNA = doublestranded DNA; HDL = high density lipoprotein; hsCRP = high sensitivity C reactive protein; IL-6 = interleukin 6; LDL = low density lipoprotein;
  4. MDRD = Estimated glomerular filtration rate using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula [51]. Pathologic urine as defined by SLAM [20]; PL = phospholipid; RNP = ribonucleoprotein; SAA = serum amyloid A; SLAM = a measure of disease activity [20]; SLICC = a measure of cumulative disease damage [21]; Sm = Smith; SSA = Sjogrens syndrome A; SSB = Sjogrens syndrome B; sVCAM-1 = soluble vascular cell adhesion molecule 1.
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Arthritis Research & Therapy

ISSN: 1478-6362

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