Predictors of interstitial lung disease in early systemic sclerosis: a prospective longitudinal study of the GENISOS cohort

Assassi, Shervin; Sharif, Roozbeh; Lasky, Robert E; McNearney, Terry A; Estrada-Y-Martin, Rosa M; Draeger, Hilda; Nair, Deepthi K; Fritzler, Marvin J; Reveille, John D; Arnett, Frank C; Mayes, Maureen D

doi:10.1186/ar3125

Table 2 Predictive significance of baseline demographic and clinical characteristics for progression of percentage predicted FVC

From: Predictors of interstitial lung disease in early systemic sclerosis: a prospective longitudinal study of the GENISOS cohort

Prognostic variable	Main effect adjusted for follow-up time ^d		Interaction term of baseline FVC within 3 years of follow-up ^e		Interaction term between baseline FVC and up to 11 years of follow-up ^e
	b(95% CI)	Pvalue	b(95% CI)	Pvalue	b(95% CI)	Pvalue
Follow-up time (years)	-0.96 (-1.31 to -0.61)	< 0.001	NA	NA	NA	NA
Age at enrollment (years)	0.12 (-0.09 to 0.33)	0.263	-0.01 (-0.07 to 0.07)	0.914	-0.01 (-0.04 to 0.02)	0.592
Ethnicity
White	0				0
African American	-11.59 (-19 to -4.19)	0.002	0.87 (-1.5 to 3.24)	0.473	0.13(-0.87 to 1.13)	0.799
Hispanic	-0.82 (-7.24 to 5.59)	0.802	0.36 (-1.9 to 2.6)	0.752	-0.54 (-1.45 to 0.37)	0.243
Other	-10.79 (-25.42 to 3.83)	0.148	0.37 (-3.51 to 4.26)	0.851	-0.72 (-2.39 to 0.94)	0.395
Female sex	6.76 (-0.38 to 13.9)	0.063	-2.19 (-4.42 to 0.05)	0.055	-0.57 (-1.51 to 0.37)	0.233
Body mass index	-0.03 (-0.53 to 0.47)	0.905	-0.11 (-0.26 to 0.03)	0.138	0.01 (-0.06 to 0.07)	0.789
Current smoker	4.89 (-2.1 to 11.88)	0.17	0.91 (-1.16 to 2.99)	0.388	0.08 (-0.8 to 0.95)	0.867
Ever smoker	1.95 (-3.6 to 7.5)	0.491	1.25 (-0.43 to 2.93)	0.146	0.05 (-0.67 to 0.76)	0.899
Education level	1.39 (-0.13 to 2.91)	0.073	0.09 (-0.25 to 0.43)	0.599	-0.01 (-0.19 to 0.19)	0.999
Income level	0.39 (-0.93 to 1.71)	0.563	0.14 (-0.29 to 0.57)	0.523	-0.03 (-0.2 to 0.14)	0.746
Disease duration^a	-0.26 (-1.97 to 1.45)	0.767	0.03 (-0.49 to 0.54)	0.924	-0.01 (-0.23 to 0.21)	0.94
Disease duration (alternative method)^b	0.54 (0.04 to 1.04)	0.034	0.04 (-0.09 to 0.17)	0.582	-0.01 (-0.07 to 0.05)	0.753
Limited disease	7.08 (1.57 to 12.59)	0.012	-0.66 (-2.35 to 1.0.03)	0.442	0.03 (-0.68 to 0.74)	0.932
Autoantibodies
ANA	-2.07 (-16.01 to 11.87)	0.771	0.46 (-3.34 to 4.27)	0.812	-1.07 (-2.74 to 0.61)	0.214
ACA	22.73 (14.82 to 30.65)	< 0.001	-1.74 (-4.29 to 0.81)	0.182	-0.39 (-1.43 to 0.65)	0.463
ATA	-12.49 (-19.44 to -5.53)	< 0.001	-2.49 (-4.62 to -0.36)	0.022	-0.72 (-1.63 to 0.19)	0.121
Anti-RNA polymerase III	-0.75 (-7.35 to 5.86)	0.824	0.22 (-1.69 to 2.13)	0.825	0.02 (-0.79 to 0.84)	0.955
Anti-U1-ribonucleoprotein	-1.32 (-10.18 to 7.54)	0.771	0.47 (-2.96 to 3.9)	0.788	0.08 (-1.24 to 1.4)	0.901
Anti-Ro	-1.83 (-18.42 to 14.75)	0.829	4.63 (-0.29 to 9.56)	0.065	0.89 (-1.16 to 2.94)	0.394
Anti-fibrillarin	-3.42 (-12.26 to 5.41)	0.448	-0.49 (-3.58 to 2.58)	0.751	-0.06 (-1.35 to 1.22)	0.921
Modified RSS	-0.41 (-0.65 to -0.17)	0.001	-0.95 (-2.37 to 0.47)	0.191	0.01 (-0.02 to 0.04)	0.43
VAS for dyspnea	-1.98 (-2.86 to -1.1)	< 0.001	0.21 (-0.1 to 0.52)	0.193	0.05 (-0.09 to 0.19)	0.471
VAS for pain	-0.35 (-0.91 to 0.21)	0.221	0.07 (-0.07 to 0.22)	0.331	0.05 (-0.02 to 0.12)	0.184
Teleagiectasia
Facial/oral	2.78 (-2.76 to 8.31)	0.326	1.24 (-0.44 to 2.91)	0.148	0.35 (-0.35 to 1.05)	0.329
Palmar	1.34 (-4.65 to 7.33)	0.661	1.09 (-0.68 to 2.88)	0.225	0.51 (-0.22 to 1.25)	0.176
Dysphagia	1.39 (-4.14 to 6.93)	0.621	0.13 (-1.55 to 1.82)	0.879	0.3 (-0.41 to 1.01)	0.404
sPAP increase by echo	0.2 (-13.36 to 13.75)	0.977	3.51 (0.27 to 6.74)	0.033	0.16 (-0.40 to 3.51)	0.119
Auscultatory rales	-16.64 (-22.92 to -10.36)	< 0.001	0.45 (-1.49 to 2.39)	0.651	-0.32 (-1.17 to 0.54)	0.464
Fibrosis on CXR	-26.67 (-33.07 to -20.27)	< 0.001	1.09 (-1.35 to 3.54)	0.379	-0.8 (-1.85 to 0.25)	0.137
Baseline FVC%^c	0.94 (0.86 to 1.02)	< 0.001	-0.01 (-0.07 to 0.06)	0.869	-0.02 (-0.4 to 0.01)	0.066
Baseline FEV1%	0.94 (0.87 to 1.01)	< 0.001	0.01 (-0.07 to 0.08)	0.874	-0.01(-0.03 to 0.01)	0.222
Baseline DLco%	0.46 (0.36 to 0.57)	< 0.001	-0.01 (-0.01 to 0.01)	0.387	0.01 (-0.01 to 0.02)	0.655
Baseline TLC%	0.82 (0.73 to 0.92)	< 0.001	0.01 (-0.01 to 0.01)	0.175	-0.01 (-0.03 to 0.01)	0.389
FEV1/FVC <0.75	9.16 (2.88 to 15.45)	0.004	-1.52 (-5.98 to 2.94)	0.505	-0.21 (-0.98 to 0.56)	0.597
Creatinine ≥1.5	-6.91 (-24.89 to 11.07)	0.452	4.88 (-1.35 to 11.11)	0.125	-0.35 (-3.52 to 2.82)	0.828
CPK >200	-7.81 (-15.5 to -0.13)	0.046	2.1 (-0.26 to 4.47)	0.081	0.49 (-0.52 to 1.51)	0.337
Hematocrit	-0.01 (-0.64 to 0.64)	0.999	-2.75 (-11.14 to 5.65)	0.521	-0.02 (-0.11 to 0.07)	0.685
White blood cells	-0.91 (-1.89 to 0.06)	0.067	-0.01 (-0.01 to 0.01)	0.072	0.04 (-0.07 to 0.16)	0.465
Elevated platelet count	-3.37 (-9.62 to 2.86)	0.289	0.08 (-1.64 to 1.8)	0.928	-0.22 (-1.03 to 0.59)	0.599

ACA, anti-centromere antibodies; ANA, anti-nuclear antibodies; ATA, anti-topoisomerase antibodies; b, regression coefficient; CI, confidence interval; CPK, creatine phosphokinase; CXR, Chest X-ray; DLco, lung diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide; FEV1, forced expiratory volume in 1 second; FVC, forced vital capacity; RSS, Rodnan Skin Score; sPAP, systolic pulmonary arterial pressure; TLC, total lung capacity; VAS, visual analog scale. ^aDisease onset defined as first non-Raynaud's phenomenon symptom. ^bDisease onset defined as first symptom attributable to SSc. ^cBaseline FVC measurements were not included in the outcome variable for this analysis. ^dMain effect adjusted for follow-up time. ^eInteraction term between the follow-up time and the respective baseline variable (outcome: rate of decline in FVC). Bold data represent significant associations (P < 0.05).

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