Continuously elevated serum matrix metalloproteinase-3 for 3 ~ 6 months predict one-year radiographic progression in rheumatoid arthritis: a prospective cohort study

Table 4 Performance of dynamic serum MMP-3 as predictor for one-year radiographic progression^a

Serum MMP-3	Accuracy	P	95 % CI	Cutoff point	PPV (%)	NPV (%)	OR (95 % CI)	P
Baseline	0.745	0.044	0.564 ~ 0.925	242 ng/ml	37.5	95.8	13.800 (1.464 ~ 130.070)	0.022
1st month	0.801	0.013	0.606 ~ 0.996	297 ng/ml	55.6	93.5	18.125 (2.592 ~ 126.721)	0.003
3rd month	0.784	0.020	0.564 ~ 1.003	193 ng/ml	55.6	93.5	18.125 (2.592 ~ 126.721)	0.003
6th month	0.840	0.005	0.658 ~ 1.022	161 ng/ml	62.5	93.8	25.000 (3.302 ~ 189.259)	0.002

^aAccuracy of predictive value was determined by ROC curve analysis; ORs of predictors were determined by univariate logistic regression analysis according to the cutoff point
MMP-3 matrix metalloproteinase-3, PPV positive predictive value, NPV negative predictive value, ROC receiver operating characteristic, OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval

ISSN: 1478-6362