Smoking, body mass index, disease activity, and the risk of rapid radiographic progression in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis

Table 4 One-year predictors of rapid radiographic progression up to 5 years

	Crude		Adjusted^a
	OR	95% CI	OR	95% CI
1-year disease parameters
Erosions present^b	6.16	(2.77–13.73)	NA	NA
First-year progression (≥ 1 unit increase in SHS)	5.25	(1.90–14.47)	NA	NA
First-year change in SHS (per SD)^c	2.31	(1.51–3.54)	NA	NA
RRP during first year	6.87	(2.98–15.82)	NA	NA
DAS28 (per SD)^c	2.89	(1.81–4.61)	2.54	(1.54–4.19)
Disease activity^d
Low (reference)	1.00		1.00
Moderate	7.13	(2.02–25.13)	6.14	(1.68–22.40)
High	13.25	(3.11–56.44)	9.05	(1.91–42.84)
HAQ (per SD)^c	1.62	(1.12–2.33)	1.75	(1.18–2.61)
ESR (per SD)^c	2.82	(1.77–4.50)	2.10	(1.30–3.37)
CRP below 75th percentile (reference)	1.00		1.00
CRP above 75th percentile (> 10 mg/l)	10.32	(4.44–24.00)	6.98	(2.85–17.14)
Swollen joint count (per SD)^c	1.97	(1.35–2.87)	1.79	(1.18–2.70)
Tender joint count (per SD)^c	1.49	(1.01–2.19)	1.46	(0.94–2.29)
Patient’s global assessment (VAS; per SD)^C	1.59	(1.08–2.34)	1.71	(1.10–2.66)
Pain (VAS; per SD)^c	1.71	(1.16–2.52)	1.86	(1.19–2.91)

OR odds ratio, CI confidence interval, NA not applicable, SHS Sharp–van der Heijde score, SD standard deviation, RRP rapid radiographic progression, DAS28 Disease Activity Score of 28 joints, HAQ Health Assessment Questionnaire, ESR erythrocyte sedimentation rate, CRP C-reactive protein, VAS visual analogue scale
^aAdjusted for rheumatoid factor and presence of erosions
^bBy standard radiographic evaluation, independent of modified SHS
^cSD: first year change in SHS 6.3; DAS28 1.3; HAQ 0.58; ESR 19 mm/h; swollen joint count 4.0, tender joint count 4.1; patient’s global assessment 23; pain 23
^dFor definitions see Table 1

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