Development of a model for predicting the 4-year risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis in China: a longitudinal cohort study

Table 3 Risk score model of KOA incident prediction

Predictors	Risk score	Predictors	Risk score
Age (years)		Depression
45–49	0	No	0
50–59	1	Mild	7
60–69	3	Moderate-to-severe	12
≥ 70	0	Comorbidities
Sex		None	0
Male	0	1 ~ 2	2
Female	5	≥3	4
Waist circumference, cm in male/female		Health Status
< 85/80	0	Very good	0
≥ 85/80	1	Good	1
Residence Area		Fair	8
Urban	0	Poor	11
Rural	2	Very poor	13
ADLs/IADLs difficulty		MPA score
No	0	No PA	0
Yes	4	Low level	3
Hip fracture		Middle-to-high level	3
No	0
Yes	4

Total score of 0 indicates lowest risk and score of 51 indicates greatest risk
A cut-off of 20.5 was identified, which meant patients with a 20.5 or more total risk scores were at the greatest risk to develop symptomatic KOA in 4 years
The incident probability of KOA within 4 years was calculated by the total risk score divided by 51 and multiplied by 100%
MPA moderate physical activity, AD activities of daily living, IADL instrumental activities of daily living

ISSN: 1478-6362