Table 4 Prediction of flares during time periods by baseline variables using logistic regression

Ultrasound sum score

1.034 (1.011–1.058) p = 0.004

1.033 (1.010–1.057) p = 0.005

1.025 (1.001–1.050) p = 0.040

1.027 (1.00–1.55) p = 0.049

DECT sum score

1.059 (1.010–1.111) p = 0.017

1.056 (1.007–1.108) p = 0.026

1.062 (1.009–1.117) p = 0.021

1.064 (1.003–1.029) p = 0.035

Subcutaneous tophus

2.34 (1.07–5.10) p = 0.033

2.42 (1.50–5.59) p = 0.038

1.75 (0.74–4.13) p = 0.20

–

Self-efficacy for pain (10–100)

0.981 (0.965–0.997) p = 0.017

0.980 (0.964–0.996) p = 0.017

0.998 (0.981–1.016) p = 0.83

–

Colchicine ever used at baseline

2.69 (1.42–5.11) p = 0.002

2.48 (1.28–4.79) p = 0.007

1.26 (0.62–2.56) p = 0.53

–